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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/20 (178 comments)

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  •  Man (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff

    I keep waiting for politico and the rest to realize that these polls are worthless.  I'm waiting for the day when politico actually mentions in their write-up that "however, this pollster has a terrible track record and overestimates GOP margins by up to 20 points".

    I'm not holding my breath.

    •  I don't think the media would ever do that (5+ / 0-)

      A poll, no matter how terrible, is a free story.  A poll that goes against conventional wisdom is even better.  

      Hell, I'm betting if Strategic Vision or Research 2000, two firms heavily suspected of fraud, released a poll (if they even still exist in some manner) Politico would write them up with maybe a brief mention of their alleged wrongdoing.  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 11:12:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  MSNBC wrote today in First Read (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Darth Jeff, Skaje, James Allen, itskevin

        the dangers of overemphasizing single polls

        "Every political journalist and observer, including us, is guilty of drawing conclusions from just one poll. And yesterday, we received another reminder of the pitfalls of that practice. After a CNN survey (conducted June 11-13) found that President Obama’s approval rating had dropped to 45%, a Pew poll (conducted June 12-16) found it steady at 49% approve/43% disapprove. And for the record, our NBC/WSJ poll from last week showed Obama’s approval rating at 48%, though it also noted an erosion in some of his key traits. Folks, drawing conclusions from just one poll is like eating a box of donuts for breakfast -- it tastes great and it’s different than your usual breakfast meal. But you usually regret it later."

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 11:25:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's incredibly good advice (0+ / 0-)

          It's often hard to follow when there's only one or two polls of a particular race out there.  It's even harder when the poll in question is good for your side.  But it's a very useful rule to follow.  

          Still, I think we shouldn't be afraid to call out pollsters that have demonstrated incompetence or the willingness to put bad polls out.  I do understand this is a hard standard to enforce: if I wanted to cherry pick I could portray PPP as awful for their misfires in NY-23, NV-Sen in 2010, MO-Sen last year, and SC-01.  But it's pretty rare that you have someone whose public polls are as consistently terrible as McLaughlin.

          23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

          by Jeff Singer on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 11:34:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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