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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/20 (178 comments)

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  •  $20 says Perry retires (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff

    He was invisible until special started. All items on the docket were necessary (transportation) or pleaded for by someone else (redistricting = Abbot, Abortion, Dewhurst). Throw in the financial reports last seen in January. Perry had $3 million. Abbot had $18 million. This one is over.

    Get ready for governor Abbot. A less compassionate version of Perry driven even more by party domination. In a wheelchair.

    SSP alumni, 28, Male, Democrat, TX-22 ('10); TX-14 ('12)

    by trowaman on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 11:30:00 AM PDT

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    •  I think in Perry's serious about a 2016 run (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, jncca

      he should run for reelection.  If he were a normal candidate I could understand retiring and spending the next few years prepping for a 2016 run.  But he's not normal: he needs to wash out the stink of his last bid if he wants to be taken seriously by donors and activists next time around.  

      Winning in 2014 would be critical to that.  It would help him argue 2012 was a rare misfire and he still has it.  It wouldn't be enough on it's own to erase what happened last time: probably nothing will.  But I think running a competent 2014 campaign could allow him to demonstrate he's up to the task of waging a serious Presidential race this time.  

      Plus, if he's still Governor in 2015, he can almost certainly have an easier time getting financial support.  There are almost certainly a lot of rich Texas donors who want to be on the Governor's good side and would see contributing to his Presidential campaign as a way to advance their interests in the state.  I see it as similar to Mike Haridopolos in Florida's Senate race in 2011: while he was state Senate President he raised big bucks for his US Senate race from donors who had stakes during the session.  This kind of money was temporary for Haridopolos (his donations dried up after the session, helping convince him to withdraw) but Perry would still be around until at least 2019 as Governor at least.  This could give him some essential start up money.

      I don't know if Perry sees it this way but to me Perry's hypothetical Presidential race and hypothetical reelection campaign are linked.  If he retires and runs in 2016 he'll still be a laughing stock and it will be harder for him to shake that image, plus he'll have a tough time raising money.  Winning in 2014 may be the only way to give him a real shot at erasing 2012 and giving him a real second chance.  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 11:45:51 AM PDT

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      •  Does Perry want to be POTUS, sure (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV

        But he's got to acknowledge the writing on the wall. He's got better POTUS options by being reelected as governor, and he's got uphill odds against Abbot. He has no fire and isn't pushing any issue. The public integrity unit was on his ass for CPRIT funding, so he vetoed funding unless the head resigned (so he could replace the elected democrat Travis County DA with his choice of appointed republican).

        If he was running for governor, he'd have an agenda item in the lege. Instead we had the least contentious session in years and are having a special over a need and the pet issues of OTHER statewide folks. He's not acting like a leader and he's outgunned.  

        SSP alumni, 28, Male, Democrat, TX-22 ('10); TX-14 ('12)

        by trowaman on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 11:51:59 AM PDT

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        •  I disagree (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          I think Abbott*, even despite the money differential, would be run over by a Perry campaign. Current polling had Perry had substantially, and Perry still has chops at least in-state.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 11:55:34 AM PDT

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          •  I'm not buying a TT poll (0+ / 0-)

            Where on 23% of the voting population doesn't participate in primaries. Our instate pollster has never been right.

            I'm going with PPP that had a 3% margin. Throwing in Abbott will pull from Perry's right in the election.

            SSP alumni, 28, Male, Democrat, TX-22 ('10); TX-14 ('12)

            by trowaman on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 12:02:30 PM PDT

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      •  This... (0+ / 0-)
        There are almost certainly a lot of rich Texas donors who want to be on the Governor's good side and would see contributing to his Presidential campaign as a way to advance their interests in the state.
        ... makes no sense. The governor of Texas is a figurehead with minimal power. There would be no reason for anyone to donate to a Perry presidential bid in order to maintain their in-state interests, given that Perry really isn't necessary to maintain those interests.

        Furthermore, their in-state interests would better be served with both a) a governor who is more in the "pocket" of big business, even despite the minimal impact that office holds and b) a president that is actually capable of winning office and is maximally in line with business interests.

        Perry is neither. Part of the reason Perry is beatable is precisely because business interests would never come to bat for him unless absolutely forced. They tolerate him, but they do not like him.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 11:52:52 AM PDT

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        •  Further (0+ / 0-)

          You can't take donations while lege is in session. The only ethics law we got is a good one.

          SSP alumni, 28, Male, Democrat, TX-22 ('10); TX-14 ('12)

          by trowaman on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 12:03:29 PM PDT

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          •  Can be good for future sessions (0+ / 0-)

            If donors don't see it as a good way to expand their influence that's one thing.  You'd know a lot better than me if that's true.  

            But if they do believe Perry will be around in some important function on the near future and they want to get on his good side it's a good investment.  

            23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

            by Jeff Singer on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 12:16:35 PM PDT

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        •  Didn't Perry raise a lot from TX biz in 2011? (0+ / 0-)

          I very well could be wrong about this.  

          Even so, I do think Perry's financial options are a lot better as a sitting Governor than as a former one.  

          23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

          by Jeff Singer on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 12:11:00 PM PDT

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          •  He did raise from a lot of groups with TX ties (0+ / 0-)

            http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/...

            WASHINGTON – While Mitt Romney remains Wall Street's favored candidate, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has turned to energy companies and industries with investments in his home state to help finance his presidential bid, a USA TODAY analysis of new fundraising reports shows.
            I would assume unless the heads of all these groups absolutely love Perry (and some do: the article notes George Brint Ryan is a big Perry supporter and his employees were his biggest donors) it would be easier to at least tap into their donations as a Governor and not a former Governor.  

            I'm not expert on this so I'll defer to our Texans who are.  But I do believe regardless if Perry has any intention to run in 2016 he does need to win in 2014, if only to erase some of 2012's failures.  

            23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

            by Jeff Singer on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 12:20:24 PM PDT

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          •  Yes (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Darth Jeff, trowaman

            But that was because his opponent was Romney. The context matters.

            Anyway, I do agree generally with what you're saying, but I don't think that Texan money men would finance a second bid.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 12:25:35 PM PDT

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            •  You're probably right on that. (0+ / 0-)

              I do think a lot of big donors in Texas and nationwide would be much more likely to give him money in 2015 for a POTUS bid if he used 2014's reelection to demonstrate his viability.  But I do see what you're saying about the Texas money men not being swayed by local interests to the extent I suggested.    

              23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

              by Jeff Singer on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 12:41:04 PM PDT

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        •  When Perry made the jump from LG to Gov (0+ / 0-)

          Didn't he increase the power, at least somewhat?

          25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 03:30:49 PM PDT

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          •  Lawl no (0+ / 0-)

            He went from controlling the agenda in the senate to being able to veto bills. But after all his time every appointee in the state is a Perry loyalist so no he actually is more powerful since EVERYTHING, mainly judicial and college board of regents, is there because of him.

            SSP alumni, 28, Male, Democrat, TX-22 ('10); TX-14 ('12)

            by trowaman on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 06:45:49 PM PDT

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            •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

              He's molded the state in his image and the state Republican party especially.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 06:59:07 PM PDT

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