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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/20 (178 comments)

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  •  No matter how off this poll may be... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, bythesea, James Allen

    ...It's really really really unlikely they're off by 20 points or whatever Gomez would need to win (barring some major last minute event).    

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 04:20:07 PM PDT

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    •  Yeah, I mean, they said Gomez's (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, bythesea

      best day was yesterday, after the debate, but even then, he was trailing by 13.

      Like you say, I doubt he is leading by 20, but the speculation now might whether Markey gets a double digit win or not.  

      •  I think a double-digit win is a given (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        NMLib

        As I said below, Gomez' best poll showing is 44......and that's in his own favorable publicized internals.

        If you're running in a state hostile to your party, you're not going to end up much better than you poll.  And Gomez is polling around 40 in most polls.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 08:47:34 PM PDT

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    •  I stand by my prediction of Markey 57-43 (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, James Allen, NMLib, Skaje

      If anything, I'm nervous I might have it too tight.

      I think Gomez's best showing even in his own private releases is 44.  So he's really worse than that.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 07:15:51 PM PDT

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      •  I personally think 59-41 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        Gomez is in kind of a death spiral right now, and it's Massachusetts, so even his mediocre 44% in his internal is as likely to be soft as not.

        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

        by NMLib on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 09:43:45 PM PDT

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        •  Still be the third best GOP Performance in 20 year (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          Weld got 45% in 1994. Rappaport 43% in 1990. After that, no one reached 35% until Brown. In congressional races no Republican broke 40 between 1998 and 2010(except for the 05 special). Then in 2010 they did so in six districts

          Really GOP has consolidated itself quite well in MA since 2009 to even be in the 40s with a C-lister like Gomez.

          •  That's because it's an open seat. (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            NMLib, lordpet8, JBraden, DCCyclone

            Look at the past open seats.  John Kerry won his first term in 1984 55-45.  Ted Kennedy won the special election in '62 55-42 over George Cabot Lodge.  John F. Kennedy won 51.5-48.5 over Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. in '52.  I'd actually say this race mirrors the '84 race as Ray Shamie was some wealthy businessman who beat the probably more acceptable Republican in the primary (US Attorney Elliot Richardson).

            "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Thu Jun 20, 2013 at 10:35:22 PM PDT

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