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View Diary: Religious right vows to pitch epic fit as Supreme Court rulings loom (250 comments)

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  •  Amendment path isn't with them (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sychotic1, Bronx59, JerryNA, sfbob, Steveningen

    They can, and probably would, try a constitutional amendment, but I really don't see them getting very far.

    It needs to pass both houses of Congress by a 2/3 majority. I doubt they could even get it through the House, much less the Senate. In the house, they need 290 votes. Even if every Republican voted for it, they'd still need 56 democrats. They might get a few, but probably not that many.

    In the Senate they need to get it to the floor first, which I would think unlikely given Democratic control and Senate rules. But even if it got to the floor, there are now a majority of Senators who have publicly stated support for marriage equality.

    If for some reason it actually gets past the Congress and goes to the states for ratification, the three quarters required means that just 13 states need to reject such an amendment. Given that there are 12 states with marriage equality laws now, and at least a few more states that don't but which would be likely to reject a federal constitutional amendment (California, Oregon, Illinois, New Jersey, Hawaii and maybe a couple more would be likely candidates on that list). The threshold for ratification doesn't now seem at all likely.

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