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View Diary: NYC Mayoral Race: Endorsements and such (91 comments)

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  •  John Liu is polling at 9.4%, in 5th place (3+ / 0-)
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    Jay C, Loge, gecko

    Nice try.  But he's got no chance at all.  

    But it is humorous to watch you scorn De Blasio for a "mediocre" 58% HRP rating, while celebrating Liu's 61% HRP rating (all of 3 points higher!).  

    I really dislike Quinn, who isn't much more than a centrist technocrat who aligned with Bloomberg to build her "brand" over the years.  But she's got the inside track.  Even with the recent dip in her poll numbers, she still has a double-digit lead on Weiner, who can't seem to get higher than 15.  

    Barring an unforeseen cataclysm, Quinn will win the primary and face a run-off against whoever makes it to #2.  And she's most likely to win that too.  And then get elected.

    NYC really has a hell of a time developing a viable "progressive" left alternative candidate to the centrists.  The Bloomberg years have not helped.

    •  Scorn? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jay C, Rithmck

      Well I actually was thinking more of de Blasio's "B" compared with Liu's "A" in the other year they overlapped in the City Council when I put Liu higher. Sorry, but by and large I think I was quite fair to de Blasio...not even mentioning his own campaign finance scandals in any detail and not discussing his political love affair with developer Bruce Ratner. My analysis was pretty fair and accurate I think, your "humorous" reaction not withstanding.

      Quinn is clearly the frontrunner on paper. And quite possibly will indeed win. But the union endorsements that are flooding in for Liu and de Blasio could have an effect if they translate to feet on the ground. So could Liu's strong support among Democratic clubs, which often are the main sources of GOTV efforts (aside from unions) in primaries. But that will only have an effect if the endorsements really do translate to feet on the ground...otherwise it looks like Quinn with Weiner being a possibly distant second. And of course NYT will probably go for Quinn or Weiner (the most corporate candidates) and almost certainly will not go for the more progressive candidates. And the NYT still carries a fair amount of weight among voters.

      FREEDOM ISN'T FREE: That's why we pay taxes. NYC's Progressive/Reform Blog

      by mole333 on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 05:33:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yup... (0+ / 0-)

        as you pointed out, Quinnis the front-runner on paper without any votes being cast just as Hillary Clinton was the front runner on paper in 2007 without any votes having been cast.  Quinn is as much a shoo-in as Hillary was.

        "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

        by TLS66 on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 06:09:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Those of us (9+ / 0-)

      who dislike Quinn intensely, which seems to comprise much of the Democratic activist base of the city, would do well to choose the candidate best able to beat Quinn in the runoff. I think you underestimate that animus from the base, but I am concerned about our ability to consolidate it into effective opposition. However, I agree that Liu is not that opponent.

      I have as yet not made a choice, since I consider all the contenders flawed, but for Albanese, who is not competitive. I know a lot of others in the same position.

      I was an early Liu supporter in his campaign for comptroller. I have been saddened by the scandal in his campaign, and I consider it decisive for me. It is true that other candidates have been penalized for campaign funding irregularities, but Liu is the only one who has had staff convicted of offenses that come with years of jail time. While it is understandable that the diarist, who considers him a personal friend, should be inclined to minimize that fact, to equate it with the fining of other candidates' campaigns, and to take him at his word when he claims not to have been aware of the offenses committed on his behalf, I am not able to do any of those things. As the prosecutor in the case observed, there would have been no point in committing these violations if the candidate were unaware of them.

      NYC is one of the few places left in the country where, at times, choosing the most liberal candidate isn't necessary to achieve an acceptably liberal result. Apart from Quinn, all the candidates' positions on most issues would be acceptable to most liberals. I want the most liberal candidate that I can vote for in good conscience. And I want to beat Quinn.

      Full disclosure: I belong to the same Democratic club as the diarist and his wife (and hold a great deal of personal affection and esteem for them both, despite our disagreement on this).

      "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."........ "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." (yeah, same guy.)

      by sidnora on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 07:34:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks for responding sid and mole (7+ / 0-)

        I'm on the same side as both of you.  I'd love to see any legitimate lefty alternative to Quinn, and it's frustrating to see the annoying Weiner's comeback muddy the waters for any of the other more appealing (if all flawed) candidates.  I'm not a de Blasio backer, and have no particular tie to any of the candidates.

        My words just come from the position of frustration that here we are in NYC, the bluest of blue places, and we struggle so to field a good left mayoral candidate who can shake up some of the Giuliani/Bloomberg verities.

        It is irritating and that's the root of my discontent.  I'm sorry if I expressed it poorly.

    •  The last Progressive NYC mayor who (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mole333

      was a successful mayor was Fiorello LaGuardia. A Republican. That, more than anything else, is the reason NYC voters tend to vote for moderate candidates for mayor.  

    •  What was deBlasio polling... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mole333, orestes1963

      ...at this time four years ago?  In 1977 the bottom wrung candidates ended up on top.  June polling is fairly meaningless.  That is not to say Quinn and Weiner do not have an advantage due to name ID.  According to a poll taken by the NY Observer those two are the only candidates with ID rates above 50%.  They are also the only two candidates in the Democratic field with ID rates above 20%.

      The runoff also is a brand new ball game.

      But predicting a winner of a crowded Democratic Mayoral primary in June is about as foolhardy as predicting the winner of the Iowa primary in June.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 10:18:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't discount Quinn (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        orestes1963, Portlaw, gecko, Taget

        As you say, Quinn and Weiner have advantages. I am betting at least one of them will find their name recognition winds up hurting them since both have huge negatives (too allied with Bloomberg, too conservative, scandals...). But maybe not. So a safe bet would be a runoff between the two. But I predict that won't be the end game,

        THompson, Liu and de Blasio have some good games in the works, and any of them have a chance to get to that runoff. Long shot? probably. But among the three I think one of them has a reasonable shot to supplant one of the frontrunners. Leading to a runoff you predict may be unclear given current calculations.

        I think it is all up in the air. Yes we know there are two front runners. But can anyone completely discount Thompson (the last candidate, for goodness sake!), de Blasio (our current Public Advocate) or Liu (our current and very active Comptroller) in the race? ALL of them have shown an ability to win citywide. Not sure Quinn or Weiner have that citywide success to show off so far. They definitely have name recognition (for good AND bad reasons) but neither of them have won citywide in a primary or general. Thompson has one citywide in a primary. And de Blasio and Liu have both won primary and general citywide. Is it legit to dismiss that? I don't know. People ARE dismissing it, but I am not convinced it is 100% legit to dismiss it.

        FREEDOM ISN'T FREE: That's why we pay taxes. NYC's Progressive/Reform Blog

        by mole333 on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 10:31:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I disagree (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Taget, mole333

      No one is paying attention to the race at this point and Quinn has high negative numbers.  I believe there are too many people who simply will not vote for her for her to have a viable chance.  Her campaign seems to be very concerned as well because they have been desperate since Weiner entered the race.

      Interestingly, each of the candidates has his/her niches.  Quinn has the moneyed vote and perhaps some of Manhattan (although she has a lot of opposition from lower Manhattan because of her dishonest lack of support for St. Vincents and the term limits issue).  Frankly, I think there is no way she will make it to a run-off because Weiner will likely take a chunk of her expected votes.

      Liu will have the Asian vote and some union support.  In addition, he may get some of the activist and progressive vote.  He has also been the most forceful candidate against stop and frisk.  I think that may convert into some votes as well.  It will all depend upon how he addresses the campaign financing issue.  I would not write him off until he addresses that.  Frankly, I think they could probably find similar violations in each campaign.  It is important to note that he has not been implicated despite a three plus year investigation and prosecution.    

      DeBlasio is getting the celebrity vote and some of the progressive vote.  Thompson now has UFT support and presumably a chunk of the black vote.  Sadly, Albanese may get some of the lower Brooklyn and SI vote, but he has always had a problem catching fire with the voting public.  

      There's a lot of cannibalization of votes among the candidates, but I think Quinn is in the worst position because she doesn't seem to have much support outside Manhattan and she carries the stench of Bloomberg.  I have a feeling she will not make the run-off,   It will be very interesting once the summer ends.  

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