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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/27 (378 comments)

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  •  Yawn, one party line Republican for another (5+ / 0-)

    only surprising thing about that was that the Democrat who did the best in his district in 2010 was Gavin Newsom rather than Chiang or Lockyer despite doing 4% worse statewide. Still only got 41.6%; I bet even a Bachmann clone could win there. Maybe we'll see some fun cat fud.

    •  It remains to be seen how many other GOPers (0+ / 0-)

      will run.  It's not like there's a shortage in this part of Orange County.  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Thu Jun 27, 2013 at 04:30:49 PM PDT

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      •  Yes, plenty of names down there (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Darth Jeff

        I'd be surprised if ultra-conservative Don Wagner didn't run. Diane Harkey and Pat Bates would have probably considered if they had not already declared for other races, but one of them might consider switching over.

        27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Thu Jun 27, 2013 at 05:20:25 PM PDT

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      •  There's no way (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        We pull a reverse Gary Miller here, right?

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        by David Nir on Thu Jun 27, 2013 at 06:53:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Very good place to do it (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          Dem share is 40%, we just need two candidates and them have four or more.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Thu Jun 27, 2013 at 07:14:52 PM PDT

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        •  Probably not (0+ / 0-)

          Dems only got 33% in the primary with a strong candidate in 2012.  

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

          by jncca on Thu Jun 27, 2013 at 07:17:08 PM PDT

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        •  It would be pretty hard (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, James Allen

          Given that primary turnout would be disproportionately red, we would need not only two reasonably strong Democrats but lots of GOPers splitting the vote.  Probably more than four even.  

          CA-08 is only a tad bit more red then this.  In the 2012 primary, two Democrats faced ten Republicans and one independent; two GOPers ended up advancing, with Democrat Jackie Conway in fifth at 14.3, and Dem John Pinkerton in sixth at 9.7.  

          The top two GOPers scored 15.6 and 15.3 so they weren't hopelessly far away from securing one or both spots; also, neither Conway or Pinkerton was anything beyond a Some-Dude.  Still, it shows the challenges of pulling a reverse Gary Miller in a district like this.  If we can find two Dems with a good profile and get a big GOP field we could do it, but it would take a lot of effort and luck.  

          23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

          by Jeff Singer on Thu Jun 27, 2013 at 07:34:47 PM PDT

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          •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

            Your's and jncca's points about the primary are well taken. Indeed, because (as someone - who was it?) pointed out, Dems improved their share in every single race (except two super blue districts where it remained flat) from the primary to the general, there may not really be any seats where it's possible for Dems to pull a Miller.

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            by David Nir on Thu Jun 27, 2013 at 09:10:06 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It wouldn't be hard (0+ / 0-)

              If Kang's 33% share had been in the 8th, we could have had a 17% to 16% Dem-Dem general.

              It's just pointless though, because just like Miller it leads to a single term rep, unless the person somehow manages to be the equivalent of Gene Taylor.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Thu Jun 27, 2013 at 09:32:23 PM PDT

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          •  The 8th was 4.5% more red in 08 (0+ / 0-)

            Big difference.

            Also big difference between two Some Dudes and Miller/Dutton.

            Now if we could get two Tetalmans..

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Thu Jun 27, 2013 at 09:20:26 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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