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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/27 (378 comments)

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  •  Great Mentioner (0+ / 0-)

    Most of the action will be on the Republican side, given the heavy GOP tilt (it went for Romney 55-43 with a 2012 PVI of R+7. CA Dems simply don't win districts this red).

    State senator Mimi Walters of Irvine has declared. Other people that may be interested include Assemblyman Don Wagner of Irvine (who might run to succeed Walters if she wins), Supervisor Todd Spitzer of Orange, and Mayor Steven Choi of Irvine.

    How about an intriguing option: former Anaheim mayor Curt Pringle. Anaheim Hills, which is the rich part of the city, is in the district, and Pringle is still a major force in OC politics.

    The most prominent Democrat is former Irvine mayor Sukhee Kang, but I'm not sure if he wants to run again since he got thrashed last time.

    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Thu Jun 27, 2013 at 06:53:45 PM PDT

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    •  One Dem has no shot, two Dems do (0+ / 0-)

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Thu Jun 27, 2013 at 07:16:25 PM PDT

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      •  Not really (0+ / 0-)

        The June numbers just don't work well for Democrats, and that's when the ratfucking has to happen. Kang only drew 33% in June, so the Republican field has to be divided a lot of ways for two Dems to slip by. The GOP powers-that-be are too organized to let that happen.

        23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

        by kurykh on Thu Jun 27, 2013 at 08:59:38 PM PDT

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        •  33% is plenty even (0+ / 0-)

          It does work against Dems that we don't turnout for the primary as much, but 33.4 divided by two is good enough to beat 66.6 divided by 4.

          As for the CA GOP being organized............

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Thu Jun 27, 2013 at 09:23:08 PM PDT

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          •  You're assuming 66.6 dividing into 4 equal parts (0+ / 0-)

            One major thing distinguishing this from CA-31 last year was that last year it was four semi-Some Dude Dems going against two veteran GOP politicians. This isn't the case here.

            Look, I want to join in the enthusiasm of a potential Dem pickup, but reality is just not on our side here. We're really better off channeling this into more winnable seats, like SD-34 or CD-25 or some other swingy seat. I'm into fantasy redistricting, but fantasy elections isn't my kind of thing.

            23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

            by kurykh on Thu Jun 27, 2013 at 11:40:57 PM PDT

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            •  It's not a fantasy, it's math (0+ / 0-)

              And as I said above, pointless because it leads to a one term congressmember.  It is obviously possible though, and not even very difficult under the right circumstances.  This district could easily do it even with 33% Dem share.  There could easily be six or more Republicans who go after this once in a lifetime opportunity.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Thu Jun 27, 2013 at 11:58:18 PM PDT

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              •  This math is riddled with faulty assumptions (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sacman701

                Like there actually being a clown car effect. The last time an OC congressional seat was open was 2005, when this seat opened up after Chris Cox resigned. There were only two prominent GOP candidates, then-state senator John Campbell and former assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer. Brewer didn't even have a chance, since Campbell was the establishment candidate.

                If there wasn't a clown car then (it was a special election, when no incumbent had to give up their seats), there mostly won't be one now, since the GOP establishment (especially in Orange County) is still powerful enough to push its endorsed candidates across the finish line in safe GOP seats. There's also the element of alternative landing places for ambitious pols. Mimi Walters moving up pulls others along with her, such as Don Wagner or Allan Mansoor, who get the state senate seat for 10 years. If one of them wins her seat, their assembly seat opens up for yet another GOPer, and so on. This entire thing might probably be get sorted out behind closed doors.

                Yes, the clown car effect is certainly possible, and if so we should make full use of it. But I won't hold my breath.

                23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

                by kurykh on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 01:04:25 AM PDT

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        •  it wasn't that far from happening (0+ / 0-)

          in CA-08 last year.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 02:01:29 AM PDT

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