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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/27 (378 comments)

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  •  This math is riddled with faulty assumptions (1+ / 0-)
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    Like there actually being a clown car effect. The last time an OC congressional seat was open was 2005, when this seat opened up after Chris Cox resigned. There were only two prominent GOP candidates, then-state senator John Campbell and former assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer. Brewer didn't even have a chance, since Campbell was the establishment candidate.

    If there wasn't a clown car then (it was a special election, when no incumbent had to give up their seats), there mostly won't be one now, since the GOP establishment (especially in Orange County) is still powerful enough to push its endorsed candidates across the finish line in safe GOP seats. There's also the element of alternative landing places for ambitious pols. Mimi Walters moving up pulls others along with her, such as Don Wagner or Allan Mansoor, who get the state senate seat for 10 years. If one of them wins her seat, their assembly seat opens up for yet another GOPer, and so on. This entire thing might probably be get sorted out behind closed doors.

    Yes, the clown car effect is certainly possible, and if so we should make full use of it. But I won't hold my breath.

    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 01:04:25 AM PDT

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