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View Diary: The DOMA Decision (124 comments)

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  •  That would depend (0+ / 0-)

    on other laws in those states.  Some have strict definition laws, stating that "marriage is one man and one woman".

    I am not religious, and did NOT say I enjoyed sects.

    by trumpeter on Wed Jun 26, 2013 at 10:07:59 AM PDT

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    •  We have data on what might be possible where (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      trumpeter

      I Diaried some of it in April in

      Gay marriage: How are we doing?

      I did not use the preferred phrase "marriage equality" there, because I was following the language of the laws in question.

      Nate Silver built a model after the Iowa Supreme Court legalized "gay marriage"/marriage equality there which shows Mississippi as the last state to tip in public opinion, perhaps in 2024. Of course, it takes substantially longer to vote in new legislators and get laws and Constitutional amendments done or undone, as the case may be.

      Combining the polling data and the legal data gives a rough target list. For example, my Diary showed Rhode Island as one of the states with the greatest disparity between popular approval and the state of the law, and sure enough RI approved marriage equality in May. Delaware came in a bit sooner than this measure indicated it would.

      Nevada, Alaska, and Oregon would be the next targets by these crude measures, followed by Hawaii, New Jersey, and Colorado, but the people actually doing the heavy legal and political lifting on LGBT rights have a great deal more information about them, and about every other state. The legal and political landscape is significantly different in each case. I hope that we can get state-by-state diaries telling us both how it is going and how others can help.

      Ceterem censeo, gerrymandra delenda est

      by Mokurai on Wed Jun 26, 2013 at 01:09:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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