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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Wendy Davis leaves the door open just a crack to a statewide run (21 comments)

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  •  CA-45: John Campbell (R) retiring (2+ / 0-)
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    Gygaxian, stevenaxelrod

    Via Politico, he won't seek re-election in this pretty safe red district.

    •  How "safe" is safe? (0+ / 0-)

      First of all, Politico has it wrong. John Campbell won in 2012 with 58.5%, not 55%. But still, he was an incumbent known for good constituent service, and he was a relative moderate who could and did draw centrist voters. If the Republicans nominate someone who is crazy, and if the Democrats nominate a good, well-financed candidate, and if 2014 turns out to be a Democratic wave year in California, it could be close. That's a lot of ifs. I began to write this response as an alternative viewpoint to BruinKid's, but I now think he's right in calling this a "pretty safe red district"--though unexpected things do happen.

      FYI, this Orange County district is composed of Irvine, Lake Forest, Rancho Santa Margarita, Tustin, Coto de Caza, North Tustin, Laguna Hills and parts of Mission Viejo, Anaheim Hills, Orange, and Anaheim. It's an upper-middle class white district but with growing Asian-American and Latino/a populations.

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