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View Diary: Republicans Have Historic Opportunity to Improve Standing Among Latinos--Or Else (9 comments)

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  •  it's not a mirage (0+ / 0-)

    Demographic trends are destiny.  As the United States moves toward majority-minority status, the Republicans will have to find a way to win non-white votes, or be relegated to increasingly marginal status.

    Moreover, the Republicans don't need to win the Latino vote (or the Asian vote, for that matter).  They need a majority of all votes cast, which means that they can't lose a large and growing category by 3 to 1 (or worse).  If the Republican Party helps to pass immigration reform, it will be in a position to make a play for religious and/or middle-class Latinos.  If they can get to 40%, they'd have a chance to win toss-up states (and avoid seeing Texas and Arizona slip away like the rest of the southwest already has).

    There is an interesting historical parallel here.  So-called "white ethnic Catholics" used to vote overwhelmingly for the Democratic Party, but now they're divided almost evenly between the two parties, and helped Reagan and both Bushes win national elections.  There's no timeless law that says that Latinos will always vote for Democrats.  That depends on what the two parties do from here forward.

    •  But if they judge that it's not possible... (1+ / 0-)
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      IT Professional

      ...then it's not a strategy.  They might judge, for instance, that it's more viable to concede Texas and California and work on re-establishing a base in Pennsylvania and Ohio on a nativist platform.

      You know, I sometimes think if I could see, I'd be kicking a lot of ass. -Stevie Wonder at the Glastonbury Festival, 2010

      by Rich in PA on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 10:45:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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