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View Diary: Alison Lundergan Grimes to challenge Mitch McConnell (146 comments)

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  •  And hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate (16+ / 0-)

    Since Wendell Ford was re-elected to his final term in 1992. That same year, 4 of 6 members of the House from KY were Democrats. Now only 1 is. Kentucky has moved to the right just like the rest of the South, and it's not just about Obama. Yes, Democrats have proven able to win non-federal races, and we do still hold the state House. But federally, KY's become quite a red state.

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    by David Nir on Mon Jul 01, 2013 at 01:03:12 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  And yet all but one 2010 constitutional office (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Adam B, djMikulec, Hill Jill, scamperdo, Matt Z

      winner was a Democrat.

      It's not that KY is deep blue. It's just that it isn't deep red. It's very much in the middle and it DEFINITELY depends on the candidate.

      For example -- Bruce Lundsford was a TERRIBLE candidate. The better candidate would have been Greg Fischer. But he was outspent tremendously (as I recall).

      Also Ben Chandler made a few votes that no matter how he tried to explain them, it didn't sit well with KY voters. Cap and Trade sunk him. That's a fact.

      Having lived in KY all my life, this is something I know a bit about.

      •  I'm going back in history there on Lundsfor (0+ / 0-)

        For the Conway/Paul race, Conway made a complete blunder by running with the "Aqua Buddha" thing. If he had stayed on the ADA issue and hammered it to the ground, he MIGHT be the Senator right now. It certainly would have been a close race at the end of the day.

      •  Whoops, 2011 office elections -- typo n/t (0+ / 0-)
      •  He survived cap and trade (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        through 2012. So that couldn't have been the primary thing that sunk him.

        •  Yes, it was (0+ / 0-)

          Trust me. If he didn't cast that vote, he wins re-election in 2012.

          •  Not a very strong argument (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, itskevin

            "Trust me."

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            by David Nir on Mon Jul 01, 2013 at 06:35:06 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It isn't an argument (0+ / 0-)

              It's my experience based on the comments from many people I know that are normally Democratic voters. I can't say whether they voted for him or not, but what I can say is that most of them said that vote was troubling. It also came from many people I know from the coal fields who in turn have family in that district.

              Scientific polling? Nope. But that vote wasn't being discussed like that during the previous election. Oh, and for extra measure, KY has developed a general sense that Obama is anti-coal. That vote allowed them to lump Chandler in with him on that.

              Like I said, you couldn't talk to more than a couple of voters without that issue coming up. I should know -- I canvassed for Chandler.

              So, like I said -- trust me.

    •  As I've said before... (4+ / 0-)

      ...Kentucky is electorally bipolar.

      As you note, we haven't elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1992 and we're down to one Democratic Congressman.  I would, however, suggest that both Thomas Massie (Tea Party first termer) and Andy Barr (won KY-6 with 52%) are vulnerable.  Ed Whitfield is a former Democrat turned moderate Republican, which could well mean a primary challenge next time around...

      When you say, "we do still hold the state House," it should be noted that Democrats have controlled the state House of Representatives since the 1920s, and that we've only elected two Republican Governors since WW2.

      Grimes can win.  McConnell is as vulnerable as he has ever been, and there are early indicators that the "tie every Democrat to Obama" tactic has lost some of its potency (witness the recent special election in KY-56 - trying to paint Kay as an "Obama liberal" and running on "stopping Obamacare" weren't enough for Crews).

      The word "parent" is supposed to be a VERB, people...

      by wesmorgan1 on Mon Jul 01, 2013 at 01:37:17 PM PDT

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      •  Massie isn't vulnerable in the slightest. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skibum59

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Mon Jul 01, 2013 at 03:20:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  agreed (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          KY-4 has a lot of actual Republicans, rather than just conservative Democrats.  Obama actually did better than most Democrats in Boone County, even though he did significantly worse statewide.  I'm still amazed Geoff Davis held that district from 1998-2004 and we came relatively close to holding it in 2004, even though our candidate was literally George Clooney's dad.

        •  I consider all first-termers vulnerable... (0+ / 0-)

          ...especially if they lurched into Tea Party Land to win their first election.

          The word "parent" is supposed to be a VERB, people...

          by wesmorgan1 on Mon Jul 01, 2013 at 06:05:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  2004 and 2008 (0+ / 0-)

      were both decided by 6 points or less.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Jul 01, 2013 at 01:52:42 PM PDT

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      •  I assume you mean the Senate races (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skibum59

        2004 was against an absolutely crazy incumbent who set insane rules for his lone debate, said his opponent looked like one of Saddam Hussein's sons, and was rather clearly pushed out by members of his own party in 2010. Bunning was quite the singular character.

        As for 2008, that was a Democratic wave year. The question I have to ask is, why will ALG do better than Lunsford? She might—I'm not saying she won't. But what's the argument that she will? (Lunsford, by the way, self-funded over $8 million.)

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        by David Nir on Mon Jul 01, 2013 at 06:44:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  yes (0+ / 0-)

          and I don't think any of that means she'll be any less competitive next year. In 2008 Lunsford was also plan C for Dems; he wasn't an inspiring candidate, he just wasn't Mitch McConnell. In 2008 the presidential race may have weighed Lunsford down even as the wave may have helped him, but next year ALG will not have a presidential race turning people out, instead this will be the chief race on the ballot driving turnout.

          Stating that Kentucky hasn't had a Democratic senator in decades, as if that means it can't happen, is kind of like saying that about Washington state and governors, which ignores that some recent races have been very, very close. It certainly could happen.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Jul 01, 2013 at 07:45:15 PM PDT

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          •  I don't think it's comparable to saying that (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Zack from the SFV

            About WA, and I haven't and wouldn't say that about WA. (We had WA-Gov at Tossup last year.) There was exactly one genuinely close race for Senate in the last decade in KY, and I think we can both agree that KY is certainly not trending toward us.

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            by David Nir on Mon Jul 01, 2013 at 08:26:35 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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