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View Diary: NSA Spying - Incoming Catastrophe (12 comments)

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  •  The stock market (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    johnny wurster

    (S&P 500 and DJIA) is UP since all these revelations started coming out. So either you are just plain wrong, or you are so smart that you have figured out something that the entire market has completely missed. Hmmm, I wonder which one is more likely...

    •  The issues here (0+ / 0-)

      target specific firms, not the market as a whole.  Indeed, if money moves elsewhere the market as a whole may rise.  Perhaps I am wrong, but I believe that the firms did have knowledge that they were installing monitoring arrangements.

      Restore the Fourth! Save America!

      by phillies on Thu Jul 04, 2013 at 03:26:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  it assumes a lot. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wilderness voice

        it assumes, first, that the.companies would be liable under EU law.  it also assumes that US law would find the companies liable for following US law, which seems ridiculous to me.  

        •  Not to mention... (0+ / 0-)

          that these companies have talked about what they do, and it's not nearly as dire as people's initial assumptions.  For example, the "access to servers" stuff?  That was, according to Google, access to a SFTP server that Google set up to handle the results of FISA warrants.  Or, how common were the requests for Facebook user data, for example?  According to FB, 19000 users total (out of over a billion), all requests reviewed by their legal department.

    •  Okay, first,... (4+ / 0-)

      ...the S&P is up a staggering 7 points, from 1608 on June 5th, when the Guardian started publishing this story, to 1615 at yesterday's close.  Absent that news, it would have been reasonable to expect that move to have been more, just due to end-of-the-quarter window dressing and beginning-of-quarter inflows from 401(k)s. These calendar issues are much greater determinants today of where the market is moving than are the fundamentals, which have been largely ignored over and over in recent months.

      Now the argument that the market is pretty much divorced from broad fundamentals also means it may not react to the news of the EU's urging European corporations to abandon American cloud services to comply with European law.  (By the way, for the diarist, here is a better link from today about this topic.)  The spate of stories coming out now to indicate that the whole Commonwealth is doing this data mining, and now France is exposed as doing it as well, may mean that all of these countries, in part with an eye to their stock markets, may take Ben Franklin's advice to heart and all hang together.  That would explain the delayed flight permissions for Morales's plane as well.  And it would insulate any one market from being singled out for abandonment.

      To dismiss the diarist's argument altogether because the US market hasn't tanked yet is specious.  There's still the possibility that that would happen.  The link I provided certainly questions the smarts of holding onto Google stock, one of the bellwethers of the market in recent months.

      Who knows what's coming?  It can't hurt to listen to many opinions and reasonings.

      •  calendar and seasonal effects (0+ / 0-)

        are quite small compared to market noise, typically 1% or so for holiday and end-of-month action, and are averages constructed from decades of data.  The only thing you could read into an unchanged market is that the news is ho-hum.  [In reality the market over the past month has actually been quite volatile but not because of the NSA news.]

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