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View Diary: There is No Third Way: Throw Them Off The Bench Before They Throw You Out of the Voting Booth (209 comments)

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  •  protesting too much, methinks (1+ / 0-)
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    Troubadour

    As you may recall, in Florida 2000 there was a machine recount -- which, of course, didn't address ballots that the machines adjudicated as undervotes or overvotes. An out-of-context handwave to the Rice/Clemson study doesn't really cut much ice here.

    Of course machine recounts have their own error (or inconsistency) rates, especially when punch cards are involved. But to convince me that the net errors are likely to have affected the outcome, you would at least have to marshal some evidence on topic.

    When the difference between the candidates is less than 1/10 of 1%, there's no way to tell, with any degree of statistical or scientific certainty, who won, regardless of what you think about undervotes or overvotes.
    I can't even tell what that claim actually means. In the Franken/Coleman recount, the lawyers fought like... well, like lawyers over every marginal vote, and in the end the fraction of ballots that the state canvassing board even disagreed about was truly tiny. I can imagine an argument that "there's no way to tell... who won," but I don't think it would hinge on irreducible errors in vote counting.
    What is really ironic about Gore supporters citing the recount of both undervotes and overvotes...
    This has nothing to do with "Gore supporters." This has to do with the empirical question whether it is knowable who received more votes.

    People have argued for years about how the recount would have been conducted if SCOTUS hadn't intervened. I think that really is unknowable, although your position is plausible.

    Anyone who thinks that a margin of victory of somewhere under 200 votes in an election with over 5.8 million votes cast is "certain" or sure, given the unquestioned margin of error, has no credibility.
    Again, you sound very confident, but your argument so far isn't very cogent. Am I "'certain'" that Gore got more votes? I'm not "'certain'" of much in this life. But the evidence is strong. I'm not sure what to make of arguments that seem to make the problem much, much harder than it actually is.

    Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

    by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Jul 05, 2013 at 10:58:47 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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