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  •  The #1 story I am seeing spread around (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Shockwave, Mayfly

    is that costs to employers are going to go so high that they will have to stop providing health care or, alternatively, slash employee hours so they don't have to do so.

    I have seen this narrative all over the place being swallowed by good progressives I know, who have decided it's an evil bill because of this.

    Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it.

    by anastasia p on Sun Jul 07, 2013 at 03:33:33 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Basically true (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mayfly, qofdisks

      Premiums for all types of plans -- whether employer-purchased or self-purchased -- are already so high, and are slated to go up another 30-60% (conservative estimate by HHS, I think, definitely not by rightwingnuts) due to the extra coverage provisions required by the ACA, and the fact that many policies now have really crappy coverage. In states with very weak regulatory bodies (which is most of them), the insurance companies are going for as big an increase as they can, using the ACA as an excuse. At those rates, even with subsidies (the details of which I've looked for and can't yet find), no one can afford them. Employers can't afford to pay more for health insurance than they're paying people in wages, which is already the case for family coverage in low-wage jobs. Workers definitely can't afford to pay the full premiums, and even if they only have to pay say $250 a month, that's money people don't have.

      My understanding is that the premiums you pay are supposed to cost -- net of subsidies -- a max of 8.5% of your income or something like that. So on an income of $20,000, you would have to pay $1,700 a year, PLUS copays and a significant deductible. On $50,000, you'd have to pay $4,250. That's a lot of dough, and people are already scraping by and just can't pay it.

      This is not progressive scare-mongering. It's reality. My prediction is that the number of people who actually pick up new coverage will be way less than the President's number-crunchers estimated; the number who have to pay the penalty will be very few, because if you don't have access to affordable coverage there's no penalty; and only after all this fails will we be able to talk about single-payer.

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