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View Diary: KY-Sen: Can Rand Paul (R) Save Mitch McConnell (R)? (13 comments)

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  •  It'll be tough. (0+ / 0-)

    I see this race as a mirror of the Harry Reid contest back in 2010. Harry fought tough and hard and he won. Mitch will fight tough and hard too, but hopefully Alison is a much stronger candidate/campaigner than Sharron Angle.

    •  There's some key differences (0+ / 0-)

      Namely that Alison has been on the statewide ballot before and captured many GOP voters, so I'd imagine her name recognition among voters might help.

      Additionally, I think the mindset and mood of voters towards the incumbent might be slightly different than they were towards Reid -- i.e. IIRC, Harry was battling to boost turnout of his own party to counter any increased GOP turnout due to Tea Party energy.

      This is a bit different. The TP elements in KY are certainly there to be sure, but nobody except tried and true MM supporters and GOP stalwarts are excited about MM. For him, he will be fighting to prevent massive defection as opposed to boosting turnout.

      Undoubtedly MM's team has crunched the numbers to figure out how many likely GOP voters voted for Alison in the last election cycle and weighed that against MM's lack of popularity in general and they're crapping their pants as we speak. Will he fight tough? I fully expect MM to launch the single most negative campaign in the history of the country because he has no other choice.

      Will that work? I suspect it will keep it close, but there's a law of diminishing returns (ask Jack Conway) in KY. I think this will especially be true given Alison's gender. For better or worse, KY is a southern minded state and in general we don't like to see a lady disparaged.

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