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View Diary: M.I.T. Study: Climate Change will produce more frequent Hurricanes & more big Hurricanes (22 comments)

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  •  observation would indicate though (2+ / 0-)
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    erush1345, Klusterpuck

    from the last 5 years or so that there are many rather weak storms, in the Atlantic at least (over 60 tropical systems in the last 3 years--a truly incredible number---, but very few were intense, and only 2 last year were), but globally the numbers are still static. Which doesn't discount this research at all. I'm just saying what I'm actually seeing.

    On the hurricane question I'm still pretty leery with definates. Unlike most everything else they're one of the few meteorological features that aren't matching what some forecasts are saying which is why for now, i'm sticking with the consensus. Of course 5 years isn't a long enough timespan, but our data record for global hurricanes is pretty poor and only is really good after 1970.

    •  Need a larger data set (1+ / 0-)
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      Too bad we don't have more planets to observe and get larger statistics on.  Only with a large data set can you do principal component regression and rank all of the variables from most important to least.

      What sticks in my mind is that of all the climate models and how they predict loss of Arctic sea ice, the furthest outlier on the low side is the set of actual observations.  Sounds like a frustrating and humbling area of science to work in.  

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