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View Diary: Mid July Predictions for the Australian 2013 Federal Election: Hung Parliament II (28 comments)

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  •  Wow (0+ / 0-)

    Likely Lab in Dobell? At least 1-2 seats should fall in Tasmania. And I think Rudd coattails will have a greater effect in Queensland.  

    •  Dobell (0+ / 0-)

      The model doesn't and can't know that Thomson left the Labor party over a scandal. So if you want to deduct ratings for that I wouldn't blame you. That said, the incumbent in neighbouring Robertson retired due to scandal in 2010 and her replacement picked up a swing to Labor and held the seat in the face of all predictions. Maybe enough Dobell voters will blame Thomson personally and not the Labor party in general?
      I think personally Bass and maybe Braddon will fall in Tasmania. The post-leadership change polling possibly isn't powerful enough in that state to demonstrate to real swing against Labor. Or maybe Tasmania really, really loves Rudd. Time will tell.  
      Same for Queensland. Maybe future polling will show a bigger swing in Queensland. And it really wouldn't need to be much bigger, another 2 points and the model would give nine Coalition seats to Labor.

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