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View Diary: Mid July Predictions for the Australian 2013 Federal Election: Hung Parliament II (28 comments)

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  •  I presume (1+ / 0-)
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    you feel Labor's current strong polling is temporary (I don't entirely disagree).
    If it turns out to be the case and the Coalition regain their national lead in the polls then they will definitely win seats in NSW and Tasmania.
    I use a model based on historical federal results by polling booth (both house and senate).
    The model gives expected results to two decimal places, the boundaries between what constitutes a lean/likely/safe/tossup are a little arbitrary. You could widen the ranges and make more seats tossups. Maybe just assume all seats I have as leans should be considered tossups?

    •  Thanks (0+ / 0-)

      Assuming the polling doesn't change then i think you are being too optimistic. Nobody but nobody thinks labor will hold all current seats in nsw. I think if you moved the lean to toss ups and the toss ups to lean lib it wouks be getting closer. Oh and the libs have already said no prefs for bandt.

      Nice diary still. Australian politics done american blog style.

      Maybe the current margins for seats to fall should be included?

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