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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 7/18 (335 comments)

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  •  Great to see (6+ / 0-)

    It's been a few years since I lived in the district (disregard the username), but this strikes me as a great get-- not perfect, but very good. Way better than 2012, obviously. She's a credible voice with campaign experience and good political connections.

    I have actual work I need to do today, so I can't dig into the numbers too much, but for a first stream-of-consciousness look:

    Byrnes won the 52nd state House district in 2004 with 54.7%, in 2006 with 62.6%, and in 2008 with 63.0%. The 52nd had previously been held by GOP Rep. Gene DeRossett, then swung back to the GOP in 2010, then back to the good guys last year. It's the more conservative western side of Washtenaw County (read: no Ann Arbor, lots of little towns/exurbs), but it's not hardcore conservative.

    Without doing the calculations, I'd guess she out-performed Kerry in 2004 by a few percentage points, and it looks like she won western Washtenaw towns like Saline and Chelsea by decent margins. That's encouraging-- winning in western Washtenaw small towns makes me think she can be competitive and even win in similar-profile communities in Lenawee, Monroe, and Jackson.

    Given Walberg's general weakness as a candidate, this has me feeling pretty good. If she can raise money at a good rate, we've got a shot. Still going to be tough.

    •  looks like a good recruit (3+ / 0-)

      As you say, she's shown that she can win big in a competitive district. She'll be 67 which is a little old to start a House career, but she's still 4 years younger than Rick Nolan and 10 years younger than Joe Schwarz, who Dems tried to recruit last year.

      I would probably start this one at lean R. Romney won MI7 by just 3 and Walberg beat his unfunded nutball opponent by just 10, and 2014 looks like it might be a bad year for the GOP in Michigan. If Byrnes can keep it within 5 this year I like her chances in 2016 with Hillary at the top of the ticket.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 10:14:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  She represented parts (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      of Ann Arbor. Some of the northern parts were in her district. They took those out after redistricting.

      I am excited. She is literally the best candidate we have in this district.  I wouldn't blame her for the Senate lose. Senator Rebekah Warren is literally one of the most intense campaigners I have ever seen. I do have one issue with her though. If I remember correctly, Dick Devos funded attack mailers against Warren. Byrnes was perfectly fine allowing a right wing group help her in the primary. From what I can tell, most of the Ann Arborites have forgiven her though.

      M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

      by slacks on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 04:06:08 PM PDT

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      •  Interesting (0+ / 0-)

        I take it the GOP had no one great running their or there was no hope of electing a GOP senator?

        We has a similar thing happen in CA last cycle where conservative groups focused on electing the more conservative/moderate leaning Dem on some D vs D legislative races.

        "It is impossible to defeat an ignorant man in argument" ~William Gibbs McAdoo(D-CA)

        by lordpet8 on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 07:12:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, the senate seat is safe D (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          About 50% of the population of the district was Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti. Both are somewhere between 70% and 80% Democratic. The red parts of the district are light red at best. It was impossible  for the GOP to win this seat.

          The GOP wanted to stop Senator Warren because she is the most liberal senator in the state. Byrnes isn't a moderate though. She is fairly progressive. In fact, she introduced marriage equality legislation while in the state house.

          M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

          by slacks on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 08:28:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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