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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 7/18 (335 comments)

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  •  How do you figure? (0+ / 0-)

    There's a strong Republican presence on Long Island, but I am not sure it's strong enough so that some up and comer could attempt to knock off a sitting congressman. I mean, who's really going to challenge him? Why would the Republicans want anyone else? He won the district last time, even if it wasn't seriously contested by our side, and I don't think some sort of vanity run really threatens his reputation, such as it is, unless he decides to double down on Bachmann-like behavior.

    Besides, would he really not drop out like, right away, if he were to run? There's more than enough time to run for the House again, right?

    "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

    by bjssp on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 09:26:37 AM PDT

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    •  In the general. (0+ / 0-)

      When you run for president, you have to talk about controversial national issues. King's ties to the district will be weakened, and he'll no longer be seen as a parochial advocate for Long Island. A very partisan district would protect King, but he now has a very swingy one that could easily elect a Democrat.

      Sure he could drop out of the presidential race. You think voters won't notice that he has to settle for the comparable boring job of representing them in Congress? It looks bad.

      I really don't think what I am saying is much of a stretch.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 09:33:20 AM PDT

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      •  It's not that it's a stretch. (0+ / 0-)

        It's just that it's not clear it will hurt him. I don't know of anyone who will really try to challenge him from his own party, so worrying about a primary challenge isn't clear. If he does something as nutty as comparing Obama to Hitler over ObamaCare, that's one thing, but what else might be do to really embarrass himself?

        Also, it's not clear just how swingy the district is. The ceiling might be lower, but it might still be more Republican than others. As I said, some of the territory he took in seems fertile for Democrats, but is all of it? Unless I'm missing something, there's no presidential number for his district just yet.

        I think the biggest mark in our favor is just that a lot of the territory is new. The more we let him win, the more difficult it will be to get him out.

        "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

        by bjssp on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 09:42:52 AM PDT

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    •  A Plurality of his district (0+ / 0-)

      used to be represented by Steve Israel. Having a Dem here would not be too much of a stretch.

      Ethnically Bostonian lifelong New Yorker

      by R30A on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 10:07:19 AM PDT

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      •  No doubt. (0+ / 0-)

        I'm just saying I don't think it's 100 percent certain that a presidential run would mean the end of his congressional career.

        "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

        by bjssp on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 10:09:17 AM PDT

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