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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 7/26 (309 comments)

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  •  Shelby won't run (6+ / 0-)

    He doesn't want to be seen as partisan. I was quite surprised when I first heard that he might. Doesn't seem like a candidate at all. Democrats couldn't help getting their hopes up a bit, because that district is purple. It got a bit redder in redistricting, and a Republican should generically be favored, but not by much.

    •  agree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Paulsen would be very tough to beat in any case, and likely impossible if you hand him a line like "I would be a terrible congressman."

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Jul 26, 2013 at 09:08:53 AM PDT

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      •  If not Shelby, then who? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        "I can talk anyone into anything except women into sex." -- Larry David, and what I think of when I try to convince people to expand the map.

        by bjssp on Fri Jul 26, 2013 at 09:17:45 AM PDT

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        •  Good question (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

          And it's too bad.  While Erik Paulsen isn't a frothing-at-the-mouth lunatic, he's also not a moderate Republican like Jim Ramstad was, or Bill Frenzel before him.  But I don't know what it would take to oust him.

          •  Not many options (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            OGGoldy, ArkDem14, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            Madia's loss (and the margin of it) in 2008 really hurt our recruitment prospects since. It made Paulsen seem untouchable. But we've never run anyone against him who has actually been elected to office before (Madia, Meffert, Barnes).

            The obvious options would be the state senators in the district, as the senate isn't up in MN this year. Terri Bonoff lost the endorsement to Madia in 2008 and many feel she would have been a stronger candidate, but I've heard she isn't interested and might be eyeing a run for Governor in 2018. Our other two senators in the district are both freshman, John Hoffman and Melisa Franzen. I could actually see Hoffman running (he was chair of the Anoka-Hennepin School Board prior to running for senate), but I'm not sure there is demand for him to do so. Franzen has the potential to be a really strong candidate in the future, but she's still in her early 30s. People have asked her already and from what I've heard she has declined.

            State reps wouldn't have a free shot and I don't see any of them running. John Benson and Ron Erhart are too old. Melissa Hortmann is too cautious. Yvonne Selcer is a freshman and barely won her seat last year. Paul Rosenthal doesn't seem like he has ambitions for higher office.

          •  His 2012 opponent (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            really didn't have the resources to compete. Neither did his opponent in 2010. Madia did in 2008, although off the top of my head I don't know how much the district changed so I can't say they are that great of a comparison.

            "I can talk anyone into anything except women into sex." -- Larry David, and what I think of when I try to convince people to expand the map.

            by bjssp on Fri Jul 26, 2013 at 09:35:17 AM PDT

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            •  It got a really tiny bit redder (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

              But the areas or added (Chaska and Chanhassrn) are inelastically blood red. So between that, his Eden Prairie base, and the Republican honey hole of Maple Grove, I don't see Any path to victory for us in that district so long as he is running.

              I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

              by OGGoldy on Fri Jul 26, 2013 at 10:07:08 AM PDT

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      •  Terri Bonoff (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        would probably be his strongest opponent for Democrats.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Jul 26, 2013 at 10:31:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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