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View Diary: Drowning Sacramento in a tide of oil. (54 comments)

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  •  25% of Stockton underwater in 16 years? That (5+ / 0-)

    seems a bit over the top.

    From Update to the Sea-Level Rise Guidance Document That the state is using for planning.

    Table 1. Sea-Level Rise Projections using 2000 as the Baseline
    South of Cape Mendocino
    2000-2030 4-30 cm / 0.13 - 0.98ft
    2000-2050 12-61 cm / 0.39 - 2.0ft

    if a habitat is flooded, the improvement for target fishes increases by an infinite percentage...because a habitat suitability index that is even a tiny fraction of 1 is still infinitely higher than zero, which is the suitability of dry land to fishes.

    by mrsgoo on Thu Aug 01, 2013 at 04:03:20 PM PDT

    •  generally, sea level rise (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      elwior, mrsgoo, KenBee

      is occurring faster than scientists have thought, and predictions are being revised.

      The Climate Central paper's methodology uses long term predictions and calculates what's already baked in.

      And yes, I hope it's a bit over the top.

      •  I can remember driving over the Pioneer bridge, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RLMiller, KenBee

        which crosses the Sacramento just downstream from the M street bridge, during a very wet winter (1980??). It was high tide downstream and from where I was, the water looked like it was just about to touch the underside of the M street bridge. Imagine that river 10 feet higher. Over the levees it goes, definitely submerging Natomas (low land in the northwest corner of town between the Sacramento and the American rivers), and probably submerging a lot of West Sacramento, Bryte, Broderick, and other parts of Sacramento.

        Not at all over the top. Natomas is well under the level of the top of the river most of the year, already.

        •  My wife (mrsgoo) made me do this. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          RLMiller, KenBee, offgrid

          You're mixing your metaphors. Climate change, global warming, whatever, is a different animal than what you describe.

          As a resident of the Delta since 1968 I have watched numerous high water events, We can attribute them to any number of influences.

          It kinda come's down to this. The M street bridge is not at sea level.

          It's kinda tough to equate sea level rise to some perceived need to build a Peripheral Canal Tunnel/Isolated Conveyance as justification.

          You're not doing this and I get it, but as you promote your perspective of this be careful.

          mrsgoo here: What mrgoo is saying is one of the reasons that Jerry wants to build the tunnel boondoggle is sea level rise. Their other excuse is earthquakes. IMHO if climate change results in less snowpack and more rainfall, then the argument needs to be made that we need more storage.

          if a habitat is flooded, the improvement for target fishes increases by an infinite percentage...because a habitat suitability index that is even a tiny fraction of 1 is still infinitely higher than zero, which is the suitability of dry land to fishes.

          by mrsgoo on Thu Aug 01, 2013 at 07:44:12 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  My apologies; here is clarification: (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            RLMiller

            Sea level rise will mean that:

            when there's a high-high tide downstream
            in midwinter during a really wet year
            when all of the dams are releasing lots of water

            that the water level on the Sacramento River will be pushed up even farther than we've seen it go;

            my anecdote was to convey the fact that even 30-40 years ago, there were some really scary high-water events.

            The year I saw this the Yolo Bypass was, as usual, already flooded as it is supposed to be. It was maxed out.

            If the Sacramento tops out even higher, levees don't even have to break- they'll be overtopped. This is most likely to happen as the high-tide wave from downstream sluggishly propagates upstream. This high-tide wave will be much higher 30, 50, 70 years from now than it was in 1967 or whenever it was I saw this, because of climate change. I might mention I lived in the Sacto area from 1950 to 1972 and go back for visits, so I know something of what I speak.

            So no, I didn't get this wrong and I was not talking about metaphors at all. I was talking about a predictable but not obvious consequence of sea level rise, that would be a very unpleasant surprise to

            West Sacramento is only 15 feet above sea level. Natomas is way low. Marysville has been flooded twice in my lifetime and it'll happen again. Forest fires will increase in severity and frequency, leading to increased runoff.

            mrsgoo is right that we need more storage, but I don't think we can put in any more dams without killing all the salmon. Ground-water storage needs to be vigorously pursued.

        •  natomas should never have been developed (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          RLMiller, KenBee, grover, S F Hippie

          even without rising sea levels, it should have been left as the sac equivalent of the yolo bypass.

      •  Oh I understand. But I wonder if they are taking (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RLMiller, KenBee

        into consideration the levees in the delta or just using elevation. Seems to me if they are predicting 25% of Stockton underwater by 2030 then SF is going to be in total world of hurt.

        if a habitat is flooded, the improvement for target fishes increases by an infinite percentage...because a habitat suitability index that is even a tiny fraction of 1 is still infinitely higher than zero, which is the suitability of dry land to fishes.

        by mrsgoo on Thu Aug 01, 2013 at 07:11:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  SF is rocky and gains elevation quickly (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          RLMiller, KenBee, grover

          parts of SF are borked (basically everything on fill), parts of SF will be high and dry for some time. sac will go under before a lot of SF.

          •  I don't think people really have any idea how (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            RLMiller

            The topography of the greater Bay/Delta Area works.

            There are numerous SF Bay maps with sea rise projections via a google search. Most are PDFs, so I'm not going to bother to link to them (especially on my phone).

            But Vallejo, Suisun, Fairfield, Carneros, and Sacramento basically get obliterated.

            Distance from the Pacific is no protection.

            © grover


            So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

            by grover on Thu Aug 01, 2013 at 11:37:20 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Actually, this site: (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            RLMiller

            http://geology.com/...

            Has a good map that seems to reflect the consensus.  

            © grover


            So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

            by grover on Thu Aug 01, 2013 at 11:39:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  In the modeling for the Bay Delta Conservation (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RLMiller

        Plan -- the State is saying in 50 years.

        We are going to have to decide what to do with the Bay first if we don't get crackin' on climate change.

        "Since when did obeying corporate power become patriotic." Going the Distance

        by Going the Distance on Thu Aug 01, 2013 at 10:48:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Also, what is not being modeled properly (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RLMiller

        for California is that we will be in drought more frequently.  We will need fresh water flows to stop the saltwater inundation in our rivers.

        "Since when did obeying corporate power become patriotic." Going the Distance

        by Going the Distance on Thu Aug 01, 2013 at 10:50:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I agree, palo alto would have to be impacted (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RLMiller

      by the bay rise, because the Santa Cruz mountains and coastal mountain range lies between the pacific and palo alto..  If that's the case the whole area around the bay is toast!

      Takin it to the Streets! time to GOTV

      by totallynext on Fri Aug 02, 2013 at 02:13:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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