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View Diary: The race away from the middle in state legislatures: An interesting new study on party polarization (98 comments)

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  •  more than just shielding (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Judge Moonbox, Berliozian, dopper0189

    sometimes a very partisan district will push the incumbent to move away from the center purely out of fear losing the primary election.

    I mean if we have moderate/centrist leaning incumbent who is drawn into a now safe (for his/her party) district. He or she will now have to move away from the center to win the primary. If not the candidate will most likely lose to the more liberal/conservative challenger.

    That was what basically happened with the Holden-Cartwright race in PA.

    "It is impossible to defeat an ignorant man in argument" ~William Gibbs McAdoo(D-CA)

    by lordpet8 on Sun Aug 04, 2013 at 06:33:41 PM PDT

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    •  Missing the causal link here (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wu ming

      Incumbents who move away from the center for fear of a primary do so regardless of redistricting precisely because the partisans have self-polarized, not because redistricting makes it more likely to have an ideological primary.

      Redistricting's effect insofar as primaries are concerned are geographic.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sun Aug 04, 2013 at 06:52:28 PM PDT

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      •  yes I see where you're going (0+ / 0-)

        and where Redistricting effects could be secondary to the polarization of the party. Even if the partisan have self polarized they were still brought together into a voting sink district through redistricting.

        I still feel redistricting could play part in drawing up the type of partisans that dominate a district. So while the redistricting may not dictate how the parties polarize it could determine how polarized a district could be.

        Lets say as a map maker your job will be to add more Democrats to a certain district. You get to add either add bunch of conservative leaning dems or liberal leaning ones. The choice will have a great impact on who wins the primary. The general election will still favor the democrats

        Adding the liberal Dems would give Cartwright a leg up in the primary while adding the conservadems to the district would aid Holden.

        "It is impossible to defeat an ignorant man in argument" ~William Gibbs McAdoo(D-CA)

        by lordpet8 on Sun Aug 04, 2013 at 08:46:37 PM PDT

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        •  I could buy into this with more research support (0+ / 0-)

          However, I just don't think the data is there to support it in more than a second level effect manner.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Sun Aug 04, 2013 at 09:00:26 PM PDT

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