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View Diary: A response to the ridiculous "45 day forecasts" AccuWeather started pumping out. (117 comments)

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  •  Oh, yeah! Try northeast Washington (5+ / 0-)

    I've been told Northeast Washington State is one of the hardest areas to forecast in the nation.  Combine the Cascades, Rockies, small ranges like the Huckleberries and Selkirks, Pacific fronts, cold sneaking in from the central US, high desert, and often being run over by the jet stream, it is a real challenge.

    I did accuweather's forecast for my town.  No surprise, we are supposed to have sunshine for the next month.  Now, that doesn't really account for the cut-off low coming up from California.  

    I like my local TV weather woman.  She will say things like the models are in conflict and here are the choices of what could happen.  Makes it easier to decide on what or when to do outdoor activities.

    •  Doesn't that sort of make sense? (5+ / 0-)

      Weather systems over water change behavior when they move over land -- with complicated geography and all.

      Plus those of us in the middle-Atlantic coast states can see what's coming 3-4 days in advance and guess with a tad better than 50-50 certainty.

      I agree with MIT's Tracton:  chaos theory governs more than we give it credit for.  Uncertainty is a good thing, an unavoidable thing, as any practicing scientist will tell you over her third beer.  Or sober.  Whatever.

      (-7.62,-7.33) Carbon footprint 11.3 metric tons. l'Enfer, c'est les autres.

      by argomd on Tue Aug 06, 2013 at 05:29:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The convergence zone in Western WA is (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      whaddaya, weatherdude

      apparently tough to predict, based on how inaccurate they are.  It's one thing to be wrong rain vs slightly cloudy.

      But when they predict sunbreaks and you get 4" of rain in a couple of hours, that's the Olympic Range saying "yeah, we dont need as much rain in Hoh today as we planned. So we're sending it to you.".

      © grover


      So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

      by grover on Wed Aug 07, 2013 at 01:51:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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