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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekly Open Thread: What races are you interested in? (401 comments)

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  •  2010 isn't good to take in insolation. (0+ / 0-)

    Lots of Democrats had much closer races than expected, given how bad the cycle was for us overall.

    As far as 2012 goes, I imagine that Mormons, who are still largely a Republican leaning group, were overrepresented in the population that year, even in Utah.

    As far as demographics, they might not make it easy for him or us for some time, if ever, but it will be easier. I think UT-04 will feel the effects faster than the rest of the state, since it's already more diverse and since it's becoming less white fairly quickly. We could also see some more growth with white voters. That's far from guaranteed, but it's possible.

    "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

    by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 12:50:58 PM PDT

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    •  Without Matheson (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, jncca

      The loss of his incumbency will probably throw away any near term demographic advantages. All of the Democrats holding R+5 or greater seats are entrenched incumbents like Peterson, Rahall and Barrow, and considering that UT-04 is R+16 (there are only 59 seats more republican leaning than UT-04) any non incumbent probably won't stand a chance.

      However, I agree demographics can only make things easier, and if Hispanics can turn out in greater numbers than they did in 2012, things will speed up significantly. But the seat is so red, even doubling the proportion of Hispanics in Salt Lake County probably wouldn't make things close.

      •  I imagine it'll be someone like Matheson (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, MichaelNY

        that can hold the seat, until it gets bluer: a centrist Mormon candidate.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 09:09:17 PM PDT

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        •  Gygaxian can run eventually. (3+ / 0-)
        •  That's actually my whole point (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Matheson's brother is essentially the same as him politically, and has the hallowed Matheson name. Scott Matheson doesn't have the experience campaigning (though a run for Governor is nothing to sniff at, and Scott Matheson was always involved in Jim's campaign), but I'm sure that if the current Congressman tried for higher office, he could lend his brother some campaign staff.

          Scott Matheson would have the benefit of instant name recognition, instant perception of centrism, and instant goodwill from Jim's years in Congress. And on the other hand, he wouldn't have a voting record to attack

          Of course, the Utah progressives wouldn't be happy, but then they never are. I do think that having his brother take his spot would encourage Matheson to stop meddling with the relatively progressive Salt Lake County wing of the party.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 09:23:09 PM PDT

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