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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekly Open Thread: What races are you interested in? (401 comments)

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  •  Drew this map of Arizona to see what might (3+ / 0-)

    be possible under a Democratic gerrymander:
     photo AZDem6-3-1overview_zps1d4a017c.png
     photo AZDem6-3-1Phoenix_zps969b015c.png
     photo AZDem6-3-1Data_zps985cfcbb.png

    Now before you freak out about making the 3rd R+1 and the 7th D+4, they would have been about D+5 and D+10 last year and trending more so. Compared to the actual districts under the 2010 average, the 1st gets 3.6% better, the 2nd 3.3% better, the 3rd 6.2% worse, the 6th is 5.5% better but we'd now face Dan Quayle who only won by 10 in his old, 3.3% more GOP district in 2010 of all years, and the 9th 1.9% better though we'd be facing Schweikert instead.

    Net outcome, Kirkpatrick wins by nearly double digits, Barber by over 5, Sinema by about the same but has a much easier time holding on after 2012, and Quayle's seat is Lean R at worst given how much of a doofus he is and how this district mirrors the state at large. Grijalva, though he would have lost in 2010, would have cruised last year and every other cycle as this district would have trended and continued to trend sharply Democratic and another 2010 repeat is highly unlikely. All 5 of the Obama districts would have been D+ in 2012 with two being D+5 or more.

    I tried vote sinking the 6th to shore up the 1st, 2nd, and 9th but it really doesn't help out all that much since a lot of the bluer areas can't go to any Democratic district other than the 7th which doesn't need it and are heavily white anyway.

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