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View Diary: Analyzing the Data: Identifying Bias in NYC's Stop & Frisk Policy (26 comments)

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  •  The thing to understand is (3+ / 0-)

    the relationship.  If you ran a linear regression with a lag it would be interesting to see if there was any relationship.  

    The reason for the decline in crime is not well understood - and frankly runs counter to a number of explations.  The right thinks society's morals are going to hell in handbasket - but on crime and another number of metrics (abortion, teen pregnancy) the numbers do not support them.  The decline doesn't support a link to the general ecomomy since the decline is continuiing in a recession.

    I have written several articles about lead and the relationship between the removal of lead and the reduction in crime in the US an elsewhere.  I thought the link was pretty solid - until I had a long talk with a friend at the EPA.  The CDC had looked into, he said, and didn't find much to support the argument.  I still think there is something there, but correlation does not equal causation.

    One interesting thing: most new yorkers know crime is going down.  But they are the exception - polling shows most americans think crime is going up.

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