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View Diary: Michael Hastings used drugs hours before his death (75 comments)

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  •  I hate to break it to you, but *you* are the (0+ / 0-)

    one who is unclear.

    In neither technical nor common usage does unlikely specifically mean, "With less than 0.5 likelihood". In common usage, 'unlikely' almost always implies a likelihood well short of 0.5. In technical usage, 'unlikely' means only that the likelihood is definitely less than 0.5, but it means no more than that. If the likelihood is 0.001, I can say with perfect correctness that the event in question is 'unlikely'. In doing so, I have not suggested that its likelihood is not far below 0.5.

    I rather doubt the ME was thinking very carefully about his choice of words. Without clarification we cannot know the original meaning. Nonetheless I would be surprised to learn that he believed the likelihood to be in dounble digit percentages.

    To put the torture behind us is, inevitably, to put it in front of us.

    by UntimelyRippd on Tue Aug 20, 2013 at 09:19:40 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Do you really (0+ / 0-)

      hate to break it?

      I would say it is unlikely you hated breaking anything.

      (Note: I think you broke nothing)

      Global warming & smoking cigarettes = Nothing to worry about? Those who deny climate science are ignorant, evil or worse. Google Fred Singer.

      by LaughingPlanet on Tue Aug 20, 2013 at 09:25:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Uh. (0+ / 0-)

        Did you actually read that page? Would it surprise you to know that I have read that page, and not just in the last ten minutes, either?

        I don't know what it is you think you know, based on whatever it is you do for fun or for employment -- hell, maybe you're a stats PhD -- but nothing on that page contradicts my argument, and as far as I can see, nothing on that page supports yours, though I did not, on this reading, parse every sentence.

        You are wrong, pure and simple, not because I say so, but because you aren't as smart and erudite as you think you are. Suck it up and let this one go. I conservatively estimate the likelihood that the ME's estimated likelihood of the drugs detected contributing to the accident was greater than .1, to be less than .1. Which gives me a nice little 0.01 bayesian prior, assuming the ME actually knows what he's talking about. My estimate is based on my extensive experience interpreting spoken and written english, together with my extensive experience working with likelihood-based analyses of complex data, cheerfully unconstrained by dogmatic scholasticism on the matter of jargon definition. Your implied suggestion that there is a fairly high likelihood that the ME's estimated likelihood was somewhere close to 0.5 is not supported by anything other than what appears to be your pedantic interpretation of statistical terminology as used in common english discourse. That is not how people talk.

        Rather than bother with a response to this, I recommend the following exercise: Consider the qualified expressions given below, and evaluate them. Rank them. Then decide where the cutoff lies, such that, had the ME employed a term below that cutoff, it would have nullified your original remark about "50%".

        Somewhat unlikely.
        Very unlikely.
        Quite unlikely.
        Rather unlikely.
        Extremely unlikely.
        Not likely.
        A bit unlikely.
        Not very likely.
        Not terribly likely.
        Pretty unlikely.
        Most unlikely.
        Most likely not.

        Then, when you've drawn that line, and contemplated the nature of the exercise for a bit, ask yourself this question: "Am I a doofus, or what?"

        To put the torture behind us is, inevitably, to put it in front of us.

        by UntimelyRippd on Tue Aug 20, 2013 at 10:31:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  what are the odds (0+ / 0-)

          that your comment does not violate the DBAD policy of Daily Kos?

          Extremely unlikely.

          You are still seriously asking what the word unlikely means?
          Seriously?

          Global warming & smoking cigarettes = Nothing to worry about? Those who deny climate science are ignorant, evil or worse. Google Fred Singer.

          by LaughingPlanet on Tue Aug 20, 2013 at 11:44:44 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I am not asking, seriously or otherwise, what the (0+ / 0-)

            word "unlikely" means.

            I am telling you that it does not "mean" what you think it means.

            Now run along.

            To put the torture behind us is, inevitably, to put it in front of us.

            by UntimelyRippd on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 06:30:03 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  haha (0+ / 0-)

              You never give up.

              I am not asking, seriously or otherwise, what the word "unlikely" means.

              by UntimelyRippd on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 06:30:03 AM PDT

              is "unlikely" legally defined to mean less than 50% when used in a coroner's report?

              by UntimelyRippd on Tue Aug 20, 2013 at 08:33:46 PM PDT

              Global warming & smoking cigarettes = Nothing to worry about? Those who deny climate science are ignorant, evil or worse. Google Fred Singer.

              by LaughingPlanet on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 09:29:32 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  haha! (0+ / 0-)

                you can neither read nor write english, nor follow a line of reasoning.

                haha!
                hahahaha!

                To put the torture behind us is, inevitably, to put it in front of us.

                by UntimelyRippd on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 10:15:17 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  it must suck (0+ / 0-)

                  to see your own words contradicting yourself so plainly.

                  Good luck with those ad hominems attempting to cover your Logic 101 Fallacy.

                  Your meltdown is oozing for all to forever witness.

                  Congrats!

                  Global warming & smoking cigarettes = Nothing to worry about? Those who deny climate science are ignorant, evil or worse. Google Fred Singer.

                  by LaughingPlanet on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 10:37:48 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  It would suck if it were true. (0+ / 0-)

                    But it isn't. Sadly, your inability to read English, or follow a fairly simply line of reasoning, or to relish the subtlety and nuance of well-used language, blinds you to this truth.

                    Good Lord, you're trolling your own diary.

                    But hey, I'm sure you're right, and there's a large crowd of gawkers watching me turn to ooze.

                    To put the torture behind us is, inevitably, to put it in front of us.

                    by UntimelyRippd on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 10:44:06 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

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