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View Diary: No hints in media reports that military intervention in Syria might be called off (160 comments)

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  •  These matters get very complex, very fast (8+ / 0-)

    in ways war planners don't anticipate.

    The players are not just US Vs Syria, but Iran, Israel, Russia, China, Iraq, Saudi may have roles to play that make things difficult for the US, Syria and people in the Middle-East.

    These things rarely get resolved as planned.

    The most important way to protect the environment is not to have more than one child.

    by nextstep on Tue Aug 27, 2013 at 03:40:33 PM PDT

    •  If I were Iran, I'd just play hell in the Gulf. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aspe4, 3goldens

      Sink a tanker and see what happens to world oil prices.  Can you say Depression?  The price of oil would skyrocket and the global economy would crash like it hit a brick wall.

    •  Iran especially (0+ / 0-)

      The two main players here are Russia and Iran.

      Syria is currently one of the strongest buyers of Russian weapons (nevermind the Black Sea Fleet naval base they provide, which is almost abandoned). Putin cannot afford a direct response at the moment, but he'll likely retaliate in some indirect way (like granting asylum to Snowden and friends).

      Iran is not bordering with Syria, but their intelligence services have been very active in the region ever since the 2003 Iraq invasion, with good success; so you can assume that they have entrances with rebels (as well as official ones with Assad, which are strictly on an "enemy of my enemy" basis against US influence).

      This intervention risks to strengthen the recently forged dalliance of Russia and Iran, and produce another fragile and unreliable pseudo-ally like Iraq (which is not opening airspace to this operation, btw; so much for being thankful) where a predictable and manageable adversarial regime was being successfully contained. Strategic objectives are very vague; going to war on a single episode will appear like yet another WMD farce and further reduce US credibility around the world, one can't do that without a clear geopolitical strategy in mind that goes beyond "let's take out another long-standing foe just because we can". I hope Obama has something up his sleeve, but I honestly cannot see it at the moment.

    •  Is there a path to this war NOT expanding? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      just another vet, 3goldens

      I don't see how this war will not expand given all the players.  If Syria strikes back at anything American, Obama retaliates and then Syria strikes back?  What if Hezbollah attacks Israel, or if Iran sends in troops, and then Israel attacks them inside Iran?  If Iran is attacked, will the Shia in Iraq turn on American forces?

      On first news of an attack, fill up your gas tank.

      •  Filled up tank: check; filled up extra cans: check (0+ / 0-)

        It's like money under the mattress.

        Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is now 400ppm. That is "Climate Cluster Chaos". (hat tip to JeffW for CCC)

        by Zinman on Tue Aug 27, 2013 at 05:37:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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