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View Diary: POTUS to Close Gun Sale Loophole...Executive-Style (146 comments)

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  •  We should ban the import of Santayana quotes (0+ / 0-)

    What 1994 congressional election?

    "states like VT and ID are not 'real america'" -icemilkcoffee

    by Utahrd on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:17:32 AM PDT

    •  what (5+ / 0-)


      What happened in 1994, according to most of the political scientists who examined that election, was that the highly partisan politics of the 1992-1994 period left Democrats in Republican-leaning districts vulnerable. Congressional scholar Gary Jacobson examined roll-call votes and electoral outcomes and found that all the controversial bills together reduced Democratic incumbents’ vote share where they represented large number of Republicans. “Republicans won the House in 1994,” Jacobson wrote, “because an unusually large number of districts voted locally as they had been voting nationally,” which is to say they voted for Congress as they had for president. As another study put it, “The results are quite clear. Where Clinton ran poorly in 1992, Democratic incumbents with a pro-Clinton voting record in Congress were much more likely to be defeated [in 1994] than those with lower levels of presidential support.”

      In other words, the best way to understand 1994 is in terms of partisanship, not in terms of the specifics of the gun issue, or any other one issue. To the extent a vote in favor of the crime bill made a difference to a Democratic incumbent’s election prospects, it was as one of a group of indicators – on issues like health care, gays in the military, and taxes – of whether the candidate was with or against his party in a year when that party did poorly in Republican areas. All these factors combined to create a wave election in which issues could not be separated from party. And if there was any single issue that did the most damage to Democrats that year, it was more likely the failed attempt at health care reform, according to post-election polling conducted by Stanley Greenberg, Clinton’s pollster at the time.

      The 1994 election was a Republican wave, and as 2006 and 2010 demonstrated, wave elections can happen in a variety of contexts. In 2010, for instance, Republicans won even more seats than they did in 1994 – without any significant debate about guns. In fact, the only new laws about guns that took effect during Obama’s first two years expanded gun rights, allowing people to bring guns to national parks and on Amtrak.

      The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

      by Laurence Lewis on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:12:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I trust the guy that gave us 3.2% unemployment (4+ / 0-)
        “Do not patronize the passionate supporters of your opponents by looking down your nose at them,” Clinton said.

        “A lot of these people live in a world very different from the world lived in by the people proposing these things,” Clinton said. “I know because I come from this world."

        "states like VT and ID are not 'real america'" -icemilkcoffee

        by Utahrd on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:33:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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