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View Diary: Drop Me in the Water (98 comments)

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  •  Rainy weather is winding down in Idaho, (14+ / 0-)

    sunshine has returned. On Tuesday I was mocking the failed weather forecasts. This pic was taken in McCall on Tuesday when there was allegedly a 90% chance of rain.

    But they kept on predicting rain, and eventually they were right. There were some impressive thunderstorms the past two days. Today, though, has mostly sunny skies, on the way to a high of around 80.

    •  The NWS doesn't want to "miss one" (10+ / 0-)

      I don't work for the NWS or any of their contractors; however, I have been a spotter for 15 years, a CoCoRaHS contributor since they started in Michigan in 2008, and a longtime weather nerd.

      The National Weather Service's unofficial mantra is "don't miss one."  Meaning, don't miss a life threatening event.  It is frustrating to all of us, but they would much rather have a false-positive (predicted but not observed) than have a false-negative (a missed event).  Of course they risk the "crying wolf" scenario where we don't take them seriously.  Quite a balancing act.

      In Michigan in 2010 the NWS missed warning a tornado in Clyde Township (pdf) that resulted in one fatality and four people hospitalized.  Even though it was as EF1, the radar didn't show a clear hook echo and there were no spotter reports.

      The ten day forecasts we have today are better than the three day forecasts we had in the 70s, but I do appreciate your frustration.

      The plural of anecdote is NOT data

      by Dr Arcadia on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:34:42 AM PDT

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    •  Looks like good boating weather in your (6+ / 0-)

      fine picture, foresterbob.

      “The answer must be, I think, that beauty and grace are performed whether or not we will or sense them. The least we can do is try to be there.” ― Annie Dillard, Pilgrim at Tinker Creek

      by 6412093 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 11:12:53 AM PDT

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