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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/5 (330 comments)

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  •  If you have to question it then (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, gabjoh

    the answer is no. He's not winning NJ if he's the nominee. He'll make it within 10%, but he's not winning.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Thu Sep 05, 2013 at 08:28:59 AM PDT

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    •  And the bigger point (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      He really has no new constituency for the GOP in the swing states where he'd need it.  

      He's not anything special to people in Ohio or Colorado or Nevada or Wisconsin or Florida.  I really don't see the profile of the Obama 2012/Christie 2016 voter in any of these states.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Thu Sep 05, 2013 at 09:49:25 AM PDT

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    •  I'm not sure he'd even do that well (0+ / 0-)

      unless it's more like 2004 for the Republicans. It's definitely possible, but far from guaranteed.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Thu Sep 05, 2013 at 09:56:01 AM PDT

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      •  Yeah I should had said (0+ / 0-)

        he'll probably make it within 10% in New Jersey. But he still not winning the state.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Thu Sep 05, 2013 at 10:23:12 AM PDT

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        •  He'd keep it in single-digits easily (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BKGyptian89

          Dubya lost to Kerry by only 7(!), 53-46.  Christie easily would make it no better than lean D in polling.

          But I agree Christie's odds of winning his own state would be slim unless the Dems nominate a national version of Creigh Deeds.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 05, 2013 at 12:48:20 PM PDT

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          •  It's possible, but not clear how likely. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JBraden

            Bush was still basking in the afterglow of 9/11, which affected Jersey quite a bit. He also did quite a bit better with blacks and Hispanics than he did in 2000, if you can believe the exit polling. There's no particular reason to believe Christie will do as well with those voters in a national election as Bush did in 2004, even if he's from the state.

            It should also be said that the electorate will almost certainly be less white than it was. By itself, that's a big, big help for us, and probably puts a Republican's ceiling, even Christie's ceiling, lower than it's been in the past.

            http://www.cnn.com/...

            http://www.cnn.com/...

            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

            by bjssp on Thu Sep 05, 2013 at 12:54:07 PM PDT

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            •  White women. (0+ / 0-)

              Any idea why white women went 2 points more for Romney than white men in 2012 in NJ? It strikes me as kind of odd.

              Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

              by WisJohn on Thu Sep 05, 2013 at 01:18:46 PM PDT

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              •  Statistical noise? (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Skaje, jncca, gabjoh

                Or whatever the right phrase is for that?

                "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                by bjssp on Thu Sep 05, 2013 at 01:29:33 PM PDT

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