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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/5 (330 comments)

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  •  VA-07 is a very heavy lift (1+ / 0-)
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    Romney won 57% here.  Short of a massive scandal, I don't see any way Cantor loses to a Dem any time soon here.  

    Cantor's last district was quite red too.  I don't think Cantor was ever a serious target in 2008 or any year.  In any case, he won 63% in 2008.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Thu Sep 05, 2013 at 10:33:34 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  I don't think he was a serious target, (0+ / 0-)

      but if not in 2008, then perhaps, before it looked like 2010 would be difficult (and certainly before it looked like it'd be a disaster), I think it was on the second tier or so.

      But then, he only got 59 percent in 2012. Maybe that was because some of the territory was new, although that's just a guess, as I don't know the district at all. Or maybe there was some very minor pro-Obama effect. Whatever the case, if he fails to crack 60 and actually continues to trend downward, perhaps it'll be competitive within a few cycles.

      Is there any local Democratic strength in the district?

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Thu Sep 05, 2013 at 10:40:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not as such (3+ / 0-)
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        bjssp, Darth Jeff, jncca

        since it's a swath of Republican territory between Richmond and Fredericksburg. Edd Houck used to represent a fair chunk of the district (Culpeper/Orange/Spotsylvania area), but I can't see him making an extremely uphill run for the seat.

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