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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/6 (288 comments)

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  •  I think the answer to the last question (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    ...is "neither."  We've performed in a very narrow range with whites over several decades now, as Brownstein himself writes there it's been in the 39-43 range post-Reagan, and even in Reagan's wins we were at 36 and 35, respectively, meaning not much worse than Obama last year in his comfortable win.

    The only time the bottom dropped out for us was when McGovern in '72 got just 31% of the white vote in exit polling.  And the confluence of circumstances and events that caused that are not recurring or anything that can be manufactured.

    All this means that we can't budge much up or down, and any movement from one election to the next is likely margin-of-error movement across exit polls.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 07:53:53 PM PDT

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