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View Diary: Latest whip count on Syria shows nays gaining (126 comments)

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  •  I am (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Orla, defluxion10, SixSixSix

    not convinced that there is not a lot of folks who will switch late in game to get the 218 votes.

    It will be razor thin and no one will be excited about voting yea, I suspect.

    The President will make his case on Tuesday nite, and that will help bring a few over.

    No doubt it is a toss-up, but too early to call it over.

    I think in the end, these congresscritters will consider the ramifications of spurning a Presidents call to action.

    Some GOPers will worry about the precedent.
    Some Dems will worry about the rest of the democratic agenda like immigration and tax reform if the President loses a vote like this.

    As has been said, if the President loses this vote, no future President will ever go to congress for authorization to commit a war act ....probably.

    The President is not a waffler.  If congress votes this down, I expect him to continue to pursue some action against Assad. It will damage him, but he is convinced this is the right thing to do.

    His presidency hangs in the balance, but he has always shown that he does not waver....and I suspect it will not happen now.  Interesting times.

    •  I think you're right for reasons I discussed... (16+ / 0-)

      ...Many of those leaning nays among Democrats are soft. I expect the vote to be very very close. But if the numbers keep moving into the nay column before the vote, there may not BE a vote. Politically speaking, that would give the president the best outcome (as opposed to losing the vote). He could then "blame" the House for not voting and go ahead without being damaged on other issues. But if there is an attack on Syria, some Democrats are going to be hurt in 2014 if they approved.

      Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

      by Meteor Blades on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 01:41:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Moving ahead without Congressional approval (11+ / 0-)

        will create an uproar.

        Now that it is before Congress, even if they don't hold a vote, moving ahead with strikes will outrage the Tea Partiers to high heaven. It reinforces their theme that this is a president acting unconstitutionally and repeatedly over-reaching his authority.

        Even though they are 99.99% bat-shit crazy, that stuff resonates in their halls (and bat caves). President Obama may get to make his strikes, but it's going to polarize a raucous Congress even further if he moves ahead without a vote being held at all.

        Well, I think so, anyway.

        I've told my Democrat - Eddie Bernice Johnson - that I cannot support her reelection in 2014 if she votes for another war. I've supported her for years and years. I worked for Obama's election.  I cannot support more war. It's just insane to get tied up in this.

        "The law is meant to be my servant and not my master, still less my torturer and my murderer." -- James Baldwin. July 11, 1966.

        by YucatanMan on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 02:09:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I am afraid you are right, Hawkjt. (4+ / 0-)

      I am afraid they will get their war, even though the constituents are begging for non-intervention.  But I pray I am wrong, and encourage my friends to call their representatives and senators, and write the president,(as I have done.)  

    •  Tuesday night I'm writing another set of (6+ / 0-)

      Emails encouraging "No" votes.  Wednesday morning, I'm calling all my Congress critters again, to urge them to vote "No.'

       > Eddie Bernice Johnson is said to be leaning no.
       > Ted Cruz has stated he will vote no.
       > John Cornyn is undecided and loves him some defense contractors.

      Another round of communications, to insure that the voices they've heard so far are not being swayed by any rhetoric.

      "The law is meant to be my servant and not my master, still less my torturer and my murderer." -- James Baldwin. July 11, 1966.

      by YucatanMan on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 02:04:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  There will be some furious villain-rotation.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DSPS owl, zett

      Hmmm... Who is retiring? Who represents a totally safe district? Who might be planning on running for President? Oh, they'll talk about how agonizing the decision was, and how cognizant they are of how war-weary people are, but that ultimately, [insert language about red lines and international norms], they decided to vote in favor.

      In this case, I have no doubt the votes will be agonizing for some members, but a lot of this will be theater, and calculation based on future ambitions.

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