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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/13 (224 comments)

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  •  Very good news (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    Top level recruit. She is still a heavy underdog, bit at least she has a Puncher's chance.

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 10:17:39 AM PDT

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    •  Leans R (11+ / 0-)

      As I've said previously at least this keeps it on the table rather than giving them a seat for free.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 10:23:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd call it "Tilt R" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BKGyptian89, SaoMagnifico

        There's a good chance the GOP primary turns into a clown car and Tennant is a solid recruit.  I'm not entirely sold on Capito's strength even if she does win the primary.

        Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

        by ChadmanFL on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 10:49:46 AM PDT

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        •  I would call it Likely R (0+ / 0-)

          and Lean R if a teabagger beats Capito in the primary.  To be quite frank, West Virginia is gone for us in a federal race when an incumbent is not running.  

          Ironically, had Rockefeller ran again and emphasized his seniority, I'd say the race would be a tossup against Capito, even with his liberalism.  Seniority is very important for a small pork-loving state like West Virginia.

          •  Lean R is probably the place to start. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, SaoMagnifico, askew

            If Capito loses the primary, it goes to Lean D as her opponent is much, much weaker.

            And there's the matter that Dems held Byrd's seat despite massive spending trolling against Manchin.  And Manchin started with no seniority.

            "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

            by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 12:53:29 PM PDT

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            •  Manchin was the popular conservaDem governor (0+ / 0-)

              of the state against a real far right teabagging troll.  He should have won by 30+% (and he won by that in 2012).   Yet he was in big trouble throughout the race in 2010.  

              West Virginia is done with the Ds federally as long as Obama is President. (Now if the Rs take over in 2016 and try to privatize Medicare, the pendulum will shift again.) The only Ds that they will elect are those who are basically center-right Republicans (like Manchin).  

              •  I think its a tad offensive to call Manchin a (17+ / 0-)

                center-right Republican. He is definitely a conservative Democrat, but has proven time and time again that he is at heart a Democrat and believes in a center to center-left agenda. I mean he didn't need to lead the push for background checks, he could have left it to Chuck Schumer or even a more moderate Dem, or he could have even voted like Max Baucus did.

                This guy is no Zell Miller. He is proven Democrat.

                •  I stand by my assessment (0+ / 0-)

                  Center-right Republican would be a Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins.  Manchin would be right at home with them.  Manchin is only a smidgen to the left of Capito.  For comparison, Zell Miller was a far right teabagging Republican in his last few years.

                  As far as background checks, 80+% of the country supports it.  Center-right Republicans would vote for it in principle.  It just tells you how far to the right that the teabagging Rs are when they opposed that bill.  

                  •  Except that Manchin supports (6+ / 0-)

                    Obamacare and Dodd-Frank and Harry Reid for majority leader. Yes he's conservative on social issues and the environment/energy, but he's an otherwise moderate Democrat.

                  •  What are you talking about? (8+ / 0-)

                    Manchin and Snowe/Collins have entirely different voting records. In fact, I am almost certain Collins and Snowe both vote significantly more Republican than Manchin. Maybe he is similar to a center-right Republican of eras past, but come on, with exception of environmental issues, he is pretty much in line with McCaskill, Pryor, Hagan, Landrieu, Baucus.

                    Manchin doesn't even stand out to me in anyway as exceptionally awful. He is always defending the caucus and its agenda on television, and sure he makes a stand on certain conservative issue. But I'm sure he votes at least 60% of the time with Democratic caucus, and he supports almost every Democratic judicial nominee.

                    If Manchin wanted to be a Republican, it wouldn't be hard for him to do so. Just like it wouldn't be hard for Alison Lundergan Grimes or Natalie Tennant or Michelle Nunn.

                    We need a big tent to stay in the majority, so I still don't understand your point.

                    •  He isn't awful by any means (0+ / 0-)

                      but neither are most center-right Rs (there aren't many of them left, almost all of the Rs today are either conservatives or far right teabaggers).  They're just a whole lot more conservative than me.

                      And no Manchin couldn't easily become an R without moving more to the right, and/or facing a major primary challenge.  Grimes/Tennant/Nunn would get killed in a R primary.  (And they are to the left of Manchin).

                      I agree with your big tent perspective.  But I'm going to call a spade a spade.  Manchin is a center-right R and that is the best we're going to do from West Virginia now.  Tennant is to the left of him and will lose handily.

                  •  And you are actually wrong about this point (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Skaje, SaoMagnifico, askew

                    "West Virginia is done with the Ds federally as long as Obama is President"

                    To date, that is an entirely false statement, they elected Rockefeller in 08, Manchin in both 2010 and 2012, Tomblin in 2011 and 2012, and a slew of Democrats for statewide offices (like Tennant's)

                    Of course WV is trending Republican, but we haven't seen the levee break yet. In fact it is surprising that WV keeps sending Democrats to DC considering how much opposed they are to Obama.

                    •  Federally is the key word (0+ / 0-)

                      Tomblin and your state offices just don't count.  

                      West Virginia is done with the Ds, except for incumbents.  I expect Tennant to lose handily, whether the opponent is Capito or a teabagger.  Rahall may be able to survive by stressing his incumbency and pork delivering, but if/when he retires, the Rs win the district by 20.

                      •  Dems held the open Agriculture Commission race (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        SaoMagnifico, WisJohn

                        just last November.
                        I predict Tennant would lose single digits to Capito, but win over McGeehan.  Again, Manchin 2010.  The whole strategy was to try to make him unsellable as a federal officer and it failed.

                        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

                        by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 02:16:09 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  that just isn't true (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        KingofSpades, Skaje, Stephen Wolf

                        Mike Oliverio was not an incumbent, and he lost to McKinley by less than a point in the 2010 red wave.

                        Manchin just demolished Raese by 24 points. If Tennant is doomed as you say she is, it would mean that at least a quarter (and propbably more) of his voters would be unwilling to even consider voting for a popular statewide officeholder who holds the same positions on most issues. Not buying it.

                        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                        by sacman701 on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 02:44:10 PM PDT

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                        •  yeah (0+ / 0-)

                          WV is zooming the wrong direction, but it's not quite a lost cause yet.  Next year will be instructive as to how far the damage has gone already.

                          •  not sure it's zooming entirely (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            KingofSpades, Skaje

                            With the crisis in the coal industry it's zoomed away from mainstream Dems, but it isn't that much worse for coal Dems than it was before. The state has always been culturally conservative but they don't seem to be very receptive to the GOP's let-them-eat-cake economic message. Even McKinley voted against the Ryan budget from the left, over the Medicare issue IIRC.

                            SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                            by sacman701 on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 03:32:07 PM PDT

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                          •  I hinted at this earlier (0+ / 0-)

                            I suspect that had Romney won in 2012 and passed some form of the Ryan Medicare plan, West Virginia would have zoomed back to the Ds.  But as long as Obama is President, it is a lost cause for the Ds.

                  •  There is a huge difference (0+ / 0-)

                    Between Manchin and Collins. Sure, they are the most conservative Democrat and most liberal Republican in the chamber but this isn't 1963. Take a look at the overall lifetime rating of current US Senators at the cusp.

                    Pryor 80.01
                    Landrieu 78.10
                    McCaskill 77.86
                    Baucus 76.33
                    Manchin 72.32

                    Collins 37.69
                    Chiesa 29.03
                    Kirk 25.85
                    Flake 23.53
                    Murkowski 22.25  

                    So, there are 4 points between the two most conservative Democrats and nearly 9 points between the two most liberal Republicans. But the gap between the center is a whopping 35 points.

                    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                    by conspiracy on Sat Sep 14, 2013 at 04:55:58 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  According to Progressive Punch (0+ / 0-)

                      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                      by conspiracy on Sat Sep 14, 2013 at 04:57:47 AM PDT

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                      •  Progressive Punch (0+ / 0-)

                        IIRC puts too much emphasis on votes on party-line procedural issues, which aren't at all a reflection of ideology.  So as a metric, it is questionable as it intentionally tries to widen the gap between Ds and Rs.  

                        The 2012 ACU ratings had Manchin at 28, Snowe at 20, and Collins at 32.  The 2012 ADA ratings had Manchin at 70 and Snowe and Collins at 50.

                        •  How about their crucial votes metric? (0+ / 0-)

                          Baucus 63.12  
                          Manchin 58.86  
                          Heitkamp 56.41
                          Donnelly 51.28

                          Collins 27.55
                          Heller 19.44
                          Kirk 13.33
                          McCain 12.15

                          Those 31 points put Manchin closer to Pat Leahy than he is to Collins.

                          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                          by conspiracy on Sat Sep 14, 2013 at 07:21:19 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  These are lifetime scores (0+ / 0-)

                            If you go by the ACU lifetime ratings you get Manchin at 25.33 with Collins at 48.85 and that puts him closer to Barbara Boxer.

                            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                            by conspiracy on Sat Sep 14, 2013 at 07:47:26 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Point taken (0+ / 0-)

                            I still believe that Manchin in his heart of hearts is more conservative than these numbers portray, but I have to concede that based on his voting record thus far, he is to the left of a center-right Republican.  

                •  Speaking of ole Zell (0+ / 0-)

                  NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                  by BKGyptian89 on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 01:46:37 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

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