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View Diary: More on Colorado recalls and voter turnout (287 comments)

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  •  Mail Ballots (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    theatre goon, FrankRose

    The Morse recall was decided by a thin margin, and turnout was very low.  A few thousand more voters with even a slightly more lean towards Morse would have defeated the recall effort.

    I don't think the same applies in SD-3, though.  Turnout in 2010 was 41,648 and turnout in the recall was 34,556--a dropoff of only 7,029 voters.  Giron lost by 4,254 votes.  Assuming (optimistically), that voters who would have voted if mail ballots had been availablel would have broken 60/40 for Giron, 21,270 additional voters would have had to cast a ballot to overcome the margin of defeat.

    Thus, the "we got screwed because of no mail ballots" hypothesis requires one to believe that if mail ballots were available, turnout would have been 60% higher that it was, and 34% higher than in the last general election.  That is not plausible.

    "Well, I'm sure I'd feel much worse if I weren't under such heavy sedation..."--David St. Hubbins

    by Old Left Good Left on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 11:32:58 AM PDT

    •  This diary asks how we are going to increase (3+ / 0-)

      turn out.

      Latinos,

      African Americans,

      youth voters,

      single women

      give the NRA the Royal Flush join Stop The NRA

      by 88kathy on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 11:44:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This diary explicitly (4+ / 0-)

        sets forth a theory that Giron and Morse lost because of low turnout of Democratic voters, and that low turnout of Democratic voters is caused by a greater propensity of Democratic voters to be less motivated to vote and Republican voter suppression efforts.

        My point is that theory is not supported by the facts with respect to SD-3.

        "Well, I'm sure I'd feel much worse if I weren't under such heavy sedation..."--David St. Hubbins

        by Old Left Good Left on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 12:37:10 PM PDT

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        •  As I explained in my comments above, while (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          coquiero

          it did happen. It's just not the landslide the unlimited gun crew think it is.

          What is SD-3?

          They punished the kids who wrote the law but did not repeal the law. Here  So what we see is a typical NRA tactic. Fear. Punish. Crow. Nothing but smoke.

          Our problem is GOTV not unlimited guns forever.

          give the NRA the Royal Flush join Stop The NRA

          by 88kathy on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 12:47:12 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  You didn't read the diary then. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      coquiero, Glen The Plumber

      Here's what Markos actually said:

      Given the razor-thin margin of victory, there's no doubt in my mind that we win Morse's SD-11 if we had vote-by-mail, used by over 50 percent of the district in 2012, and with a nearly 10-point Democratic advantage.
      Markos did not claim that mail-in ballots would have swung the election to Giron.  So if you're going to dispute his claims, please limit yourself to claims he's actually made.

      "Ça c'est une chanson que j'aurais vraiment aimé ne pas avoir écrite." -- Barbara

      by FogCityJohn on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 01:01:37 PM PDT

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      •  Uh, no. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        theatre goon, FrankRose

        There are several paragraphs above the single sentence you quote that set forth the theory that I, quite correctly, ascribe to Markos.

        But thanks for the condescension.

        "Well, I'm sure I'd feel much worse if I weren't under such heavy sedation..."--David St. Hubbins

        by Old Left Good Left on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 01:19:29 PM PDT

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        •  Funny that you don't identify them. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          coquiero, Glen The Plumber

          And funny that the language I quoted to you shows that Markos never claimed that mail-in ballots would have saved Giron's seat.  He makes that claim only with respect to Morse.

          So I frankly don't know what you're talking about.

          "Ça c'est une chanson que j'aurais vraiment aimé ne pas avoir écrite." -- Barbara

          by FogCityJohn on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 01:28:35 PM PDT

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          •  Sorry (0+ / 0-)

            I didn't know that you couldn't interpret "there are several paragraphs above the single sentence you quote" to mean, well, the paragraphs above the single sentence you quoted.

            So, for the record, or for those readers who are a bit stupid, I meant "the" paragraphs.

            Thank you and good day.

            "Well, I'm sure I'd feel much worse if I weren't under such heavy sedation..."--David St. Hubbins

            by Old Left Good Left on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 03:37:23 PM PDT

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            •  Which have nothing to do with my point. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              coquiero, Glen The Plumber

              And the relevance of which you have still failed to explain.  

              So now tell me, who's being stupid?

              "Ça c'est une chanson que j'aurais vraiment aimé ne pas avoir écrite." -- Barbara

              by FogCityJohn on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 04:06:38 PM PDT

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              •  Well (0+ / 0-)

                Half the diary is devoted to explaining, with quotes and a reference to a prior diary, the mail ballot/low turnout theory.  And yes, he explicitly says that it applies to Morse, but he doesn't say it doesn't apply to Giron.

                So, excuse me if I haven't addressed your point, because you have not actually made any point that I could address, other than to say that you have no fucking idea what you're posting about.

                "Well, I'm sure I'd feel much worse if I weren't under such heavy sedation..."--David St. Hubbins

                by Old Left Good Left on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 05:01:10 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Oh! Now I get it! (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Glen The Plumber

                  Since Markos didn't say (in this diary) that his mail-in ballot theory didn't apply to Giron, you just assumed that he thinks it did, and wrote a comment to refute something he hadn't actually said.

                  Okay, well now all that makes perfect sense.

                  "Ça c'est une chanson que j'aurais vraiment aimé ne pas avoir écrite." -- Barbara

                  by FogCityJohn on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 08:54:17 PM PDT

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                  •  Well, yes (0+ / 0-)

                    The diary is, after all, about "Colorado recalls."

                    Now, not to belabor the point, but "recalls" is plural.  As you may know, "plural" means more than one.  I guess it's possible Markos was referring to some other Colorado recall than that of Morse, but I can't really think of one other than in SD-3.

                    Please, enlighten me.  What other recall could the diary be about?

                    Or you could STFU.

                    "Well, I'm sure I'd feel much worse if I weren't under such heavy sedation..."--David St. Hubbins

                    by Old Left Good Left on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 09:54:22 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

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