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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/17 (506 comments)

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  •  WI-Gov: 16% of 2012 Obama voters... (6+ / 0-)

    ...don't like either Mary Burke or Kathleen Vinehout. Some of that may be the far-left contingent in Wisconsin, the rest of it is probably Obama/Walker voters.

    Also, Peter Barca and Tom Nelson were also polled in hypothetical matchups against Walker in addition to Burke and Vinehout, and Barca outperformed both Burke and Vinehout (but trails Walker by 4). Burke and Vinehout both trail Walker by 6.

    No hypothetical Democratic primary matchups were polled, unfortunately.

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Sep 17, 2013 at 06:49:17 AM PDT

    •  I doubt there'll be a Dem primary (13+ / 0-)

      Burke's our gal, for better or worse.

      Interesting tidbits from that poll:

      -Walker has higher name ID than the President.
      -Non-white voters don't like any of the gubernatorial candidates much at all.
      -Women like the abortion bill more than men (!)
      -Even Republicans oppose the abortion bill (!!)
      -Democrats don't like Tom Nelson
      -Walker wins non-white voters against everyone but Vinehout, and she only wins by a point.

      You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

      by Gpack3 on Tue Sep 17, 2013 at 08:01:28 AM PDT

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    •  Name Recognition for all Dems is below 40%. I (7+ / 0-)

      really don't think we can take much from these numbers with 60% of Wisconsin not knowing who the heck all these Dems are.

      "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

      by BlueSasha on Tue Sep 17, 2013 at 08:34:57 AM PDT

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    •  That margin is almost meaningless. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BlueSasha, stevenaxelrod, MichaelNY

      It's so small, and it's probably something that can be overcome.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Tue Sep 17, 2013 at 08:39:16 AM PDT

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    •  The Obama Walker voter has to be... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

      ...the greatest conundrum in the history of politics.  How someone could support two complete and utter opposites is a complete mystery.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Tue Sep 17, 2013 at 11:09:56 AM PDT

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      •  Look at Johnson and Baldwin (6+ / 0-)

        I think that must be the widest ideological gap in the chamber.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Tue Sep 17, 2013 at 11:11:54 AM PDT

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      •  More mysterious than Nader to McCain? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'm fairly certain my late uncle went from being a Nader supporter to being a McCain supporter. He was very ill at the time of the election, but (this is where my shitty memory for important things hurts me) I forget when he passed on.

        Then again, I specifically remember him saying to me around 2000 that he wanted to get money out of politics, so perhaps this is not all that odd, given McCain-Feingold.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Tue Sep 17, 2013 at 11:14:55 AM PDT

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      •  Anecdotally . . . (6+ / 0-)

        . . . I once knew someone from the Atlanta suburbs whose 1996 vote was Clinton for president and Gingrich for congress.

        Then, there was the New Yorker I knew whose voting history included Giuliani for mayor, Hillary for senator, and Nader for president. I told her that her official partisan affiliation should be "the Meshugenah Party."

        As we all know, people don't vote with their heads. They vote with their guts.

        30, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "'Let's talk about health care, Mackenzie!' 'Oh Amanda, I'd rather not; that's not polite!'"

        by The Caped Composer on Tue Sep 17, 2013 at 11:28:59 AM PDT

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        •  That doesn't seem so hard to believe. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Giuiliani won a strong victory in 1997 and wasn't the war-mongering clown he looks like now (or, at least, was a clown because of his personal life). Lazio did much better than Gore in New York, probably because Clinton was a carpetbagger at the time and he was from Long Island and probably cut down on usual margins there. Meanwhile, Gore was going to win New York easily, so a vote for Nader was a relatively cost-free way to try to give life to a third-party candidate.

          Of course, there's no guarantee this person was thinking like that.

          The Clinton/Gingrich guy? That's harder to process.

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Tue Sep 17, 2013 at 11:35:29 AM PDT

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          •  I'd have to look at who the opponents were (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            but I wonder if the patterns above cited, especially the mixed-ticket ones, are influenced by an inclination to vote for the celebrity. Almost every aspect of American life now is tinged with an appetite for celebrities and pseudo-celebrities.

            A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

            by Christopher Walker on Tue Sep 17, 2013 at 12:37:14 PM PDT

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            •  Maybe, but the choices CC's (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Christopher Walker, MichaelNY

              acquaintance made don't seem that incongruous. Giuliani was a social liberal and was seen as a very effective mayor, Clinton might have lost to Lazio, or so it appeared at one time, and anyone who is voting for Nader is liberal and probably tuned in enough to know about why it's better to vote for him in NY as opposed to, oh, FL or WA.

              "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

              by bjssp on Tue Sep 17, 2013 at 12:44:07 PM PDT

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      •  There are a good number of anti-labor Dems (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BoswellSupporter

        Or people who like a big federal government because of social security or other entitlement programs, but don't want to pay a dime for schools or local programs that don't directly benefit them.

        Who knows? Wisconsin has a recent history of electing Dems at the federal level and Republicans at the state level, so it's not an entirely new phenomenon.

        •  The WI Dem party has never really been strong (0+ / 0-)

          The Republicans have always been the natural governing party of Wisconsin since the formation of the party (even as the party shifted rightward over the years).

          My biggest worry about Burke is that some of the ultra-liberals in the Wisconsin legislature (such as Chris Taylor) might try to push legislation that appeals to the Democratic base but Burke would likely veto (such as limits on how much candidates for public office in Wisconsin can donate to their campaigns) if Burke is elected governor.

          My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

          by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Sep 17, 2013 at 08:14:50 PM PDT

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          •  yeah, cause ultra-liberal legislation (6+ / 0-)

            is definitely gonna make it through the Wis leg...

            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Tue Sep 17, 2013 at 08:28:03 PM PDT

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          •  So... (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, HoosierD42, jncca

            Doesn't this statement:  

            The WI Dem party has never really been strong. The Republicans have always been the natural governing party of Wisconsin since the formation of the party (even as the party shifted rightward over the years).
            cut against everything you've said for years? Namely that the only Dems who can win Wisconsin (nay, that the best Dems for winning the state) are ultra-progressives? If Republicans are the natural governing party, then it stands to reason that moderate Democrats would have a much easier time winning statewide.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Tue Sep 17, 2013 at 11:19:49 PM PDT

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          •  That isn't historically true (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            At least, not since the end of the McCarthy era. The parties have been at parity or close to it for at least 50 years here.

            Male, 23, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

            by fearlessfred14 on Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 06:14:42 AM PDT

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