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View Diary: White House: Obama would veto Boehner-Cruz bill to defund Obamacare (27 comments)

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  •  Don't Worry, Be Happy! (9+ / 0-)

    As I said yesterday this is how the whole thing will likely play out:

    I would guess Boehner can get most, if not all, House Republicans to pass this CR without ACA funding (or with a prohibition against ACA funding).  It then goes to the Senate where Reid is sure to propose an amendment to the House CR to include funding for ACA.  Cruz will certainly object creating a filibuster of the amendment forcing Reid into a cloture vote.  He will then need about a half dozen Senate Republicans with all Senate Dems. to achieve the 60 votes needed for cloture.

    If he gets enough Republicans to get to 60 he ends Cruz's filibuster, which is the most likely scenario (and splits Senate Republicans on the ACA in a very visible way), Reid will only need a simple majority to pass the ACA amendment to the CR (i.e., only needs Senate Dems.).  He will then get to send the amended CR back to the House, where Boehner will be faced with the choice of bringing it to the House floor for a vote, or ignore it and allow a government shutdown which House Republicans will own the consequences of.  If he brings it to the House floor (which is the more likely scenario) it will likely pass in the face of a government shutdown with all Dems. and just enough Republicans (again splitting the Republican Party).

    So in a nut shell this is all about Boehner giving Cruz and his fellow House Republican Tea Party crazies an opportunity to vent so he can say he tried and save (he hopes) his Speakership which is what is important to Boehner above all else.  In the end, Cruz will be defeated in a cloture vote by a minority of Republican Senators and a minority of Republican House members will split with their Tea Party crazies and pass the CR with the ACA funding to avoid the shutdown, AND BOEHNER KNOWS IT.

    The only downside for us is we will likely have to swallow 3 more months of Sequester cuts which is causing the country considerable pain that the media is ignoring.

    "Some men see things as they are and ask, 'Why?' I dream of things that never were and ask, 'Why not?"

    by Doctor Who on Thu Sep 19, 2013 at 07:58:30 AM PDT

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