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View Diary: Will Ted Cruz filibuster his way to disaster? (78 comments)

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  •  While my crystal ball reports only (0+ / 0-)

    fog, with high chance of storm, I am willing to take a shot at this. I used make conditional predictions of high-tech markets for a living, and most of those techniques apply to politics, too.

    I see two possibilities. It depends on John Boehner's estimate of whether the Tea Partiers can elect somebody else as Speaker of the House in his place.

    • If not, which has so far been the case, he postures as long as possible, and then caves, breaking the Hastert Suicide PactRule (requiring votes only on bills supported by a majority of Republicans) and allowing a floor vote on a clean CR and a clean debt limit increase, which then pass with mostly Democratic votes. He does this, rarely, and almost exclusively to avert catastrophes of this order.
    • If not, we get a shutdown, along the lines of the Newt Gingrich/Contract on America shutdowns (Nice little gummint ya got there, be a shame if sumpn wuzta happena it, yeah? Ta make it, ya know, way littler?), from November 14 through November 19, 1995 and from December 16, 1995 to January 6, 1996, for a total of 28 days.

    United States federal government shutdown of 1995 and 1996

    Possibly a bit longer and if so much worse in its impacts on the economy and Republican fortunes. Cue the handwringing.

    Clinton's approval rating fell significantly during the shutdown. According to media commentators, this indicated that the general public blamed the President for the government shutdown. However, once it had ended his approval ratings rose to their highest since his election.
    This analysis is faulty. First, Republicans claimed that they would never back down. Never! And who could prove otherwise, until it happened? So Clinton's approval declined, not because voters thought he did it, but because some thought that only he could break the crisis by caving. However, approval of Republicans did not rise. When they were shown to be posturing losers, and Clinton had won decisively, it all came back on them, and they were crushed in the following midterm elections.

    Thus the Wall Street Journal denounces this plan as a kamikaze attack on an aircraft carrier, and suggests that it could result in Nancy Pelosi becoming Speaker again. I guess like MacArthur being put in charge of Japan after the surrender? Hey, at least it wasn't Curtis LeMay!

    September 16, 2013, 7:18 p.m. ET

    The Power of 218
    If House Republicans can't hold together, they have no leverage at all.

    These critics portrayed the Boehner plan as a sellout because of a campaign that captured the imagination of some conservatives this summer: Republicans must threaten to crash their Zeros into the aircraft carrier of ObamaCare. Their demand is that the House pair the “must pass” CR or the debt limit with defunding the health-care bill. Kamikaze missions rarely turn out well, least of all for the pilots…

    Mr. Obama may want a shutdown so he can change the subject to his caricature [sic; any dKos cartoonists handy?] of GOP zealots who want no government. He'll blame any turmoil or economic fallout on House Republicans, figuring that he can split the tea party from the GOP and that this is the one event that could reinstall Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. Mr. Obama could spend his final two years going out in a blaze of liberal glory. [Emphasis added]

    However, in this confrontation it is the Democrats who hold the Nuclear Option. [Yes, I admit that it is a terrible joke, but somebody had to make it. And we aren't even threatening to nuke Republicans, just the filibuster. Although there will be political fallout.]

    It is not only this once that I am delighted to be able to agree with the Wall Street Journal. It remains rare, but try a Google search of kamikaze
    (Videos—Sorry about the ads)

    Opinion: The GOP's Kamikaze Wing

    Opinion: Ted Cruz's Kamikaze Strategy

    But pay no attention to

    Opinion: The Climate Kamikaze
    which is just the usual trashing of Michael Mann and the Global Warming Hockey Stick Graph.

    Ceterem censeo, gerrymandra delenda est

    by Mokurai on Thu Sep 19, 2013 at 02:16:12 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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