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View Diary: UPDATED (with thanks) Another Take on Football's Future: A Response (84 comments)

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  •  What sport do you see replacing it (seriously?) (2+ / 0-)
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    B o o, LordMike

    It's easy to emote that Soccer could be it, however, that has been a mantra for a very long time and TV viewership is just not rising.

    Rugby is far more physically dangerous then Football, so its' unlikely.

    NBA hit it's peak years ago and ratings haven't been good since.

    Meanwhile, the only programming that has turned in a better then 20 share on any network in the last 5 years have all been football.

    Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

    by Chris Reeves on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 06:12:06 PM PDT

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    •  Ah (0+ / 0-)

      I don't see it being replaced, rather surpassed. This is perhaps a topic for another diary altogether, but basketball is actually trending dramatically upward. This is due to two primary factors-- the biggest influx of talent in two decades, and the league's biggest superstar since Michael Jordan in LeBron. LeBron's Decision, and the resulting anger, combined with a bunch of good and rising young teams like the Thunder, has made basketball much more popular in the last 3 years. In addition, the new CBA has made basketball a lot more profitable for owners. The Sacramento Kings, valued at $300 million in 2009, just sold for almost twice that ($560 million) two years later. Basketball is on a major upswing.

      As far as soccer, my thoughts are these: soccer isn't as popular in the US as it is elsewhere because the talented athletes have more lucrative options here. In Europe, soccer is the most lucrative sport of all (behind maybe F1), and it attracts the best athletes. If parents hold their children out of football at a young age, I have no doubt that a knock-on effect would be that some of those children end up taking soccer more seriously and pursue it further into their adolescence. All that's missing for soccer in the US are the right athletes-- if the quality of US soccer was even a half step below the quality of European soccer, it would become a much more popular game.

      Finally, baseball will benefit quite a bit. As an anecdote, two of the young QBs I mentioned above, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson, were also baseball stars in college. Wilson actually signed a minor league deal with the Colorado Rockies before being drafted into football. Both of these guys are incredible athletes who would likely have turned out well as professional baseball players. However, both chose football, and now they are superstars. What happens if, in 20 years, the calculus for multi-sport stars changes, and baseball is the safer career option? More of the best athletes go into baseball, and the sport benefits.

      "How much wisdom is lost in knowledge? And how much knowledge is lost in information" -Juhani Pallasmaa

      by B o o on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 06:26:24 PM PDT

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      •  The problem for basketball... (1+ / 0-)
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        B o o

        is the roster size. As I noted above, NBA teams (and college and high school) generally have 12-14 players max. An NFL roster has 53 players plus a handful of folks on the practice squad and college teams are often much larger.  I think high school teams fall in between (but that's just a guess really).

        As far as soccer goes, don't forget that, while its been slow to catch on professionally, its hugely popular at the high school level. It is widely played at the college level too. So I'm just not sure that these sports will be able to absorb folks that might have gone on to play football. That is a LOT of players to flow over into basketball or soccer.

        •  Thanks for the reply (1+ / 0-)
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          I'm about to head off for the night, so this will be my last reply today.

          Point taken re: the roster sizes in basketball-- 15 guys for the regular season and 13 for the playoffs I believe, plus a few that can be on the practice squad.

          I think they key is that these sports aren't going to have to absorb ALL of the players who are currently in football. I just think there will be a general but significant reduction-- for instance, if nowadays 150 kids try out for the high school team, maybe in 20 years that number is down to 100 or 110. Basketball and soccer and baseball would simply leech more of the best athletes-- the guys with the most skill and the best shots at professional careers-- partially because those sports will offer safer more stable careers, and partially because they will be more likely to not have played football as children.

          "How much wisdom is lost in knowledge? And how much knowledge is lost in information" -Juhani Pallasmaa

          by B o o on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 09:08:54 PM PDT

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