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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/24 (337 comments)

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  •  I continue to get annoyed (14+ / 0-)

    At the way pollsters comment on their polls in the media as if the data was written in stone tablets. Lee Miringoff yesterday talking about how Robert Sarvis has "tapped into something" in Virginia and Maurice Carroll today making assumptions about Cory Booker. They act like no other numbers exist.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 09:25:58 AM PDT

    •  It's massively irritating (6+ / 0-)

      I just try to ignore it, but it's aggravating reading how self-absorbed and confident so many pollsters are.  Just once I would love to see toplines followed by "It seems the election is closing because who the fuck knows maybe it is maybe it isn't polling is a disaster these days margin of error 20% all hail Cthulhu."  Well, I can dream.

      And the traditional media takes the same attitude when writing up these polls, like it's an iron fact that the poll reflects the actual election results that would happen if it were held that day.  I want to tear my hair out when I read something like "The lead is 4 points, outside of the 3-point margin of error, so this candidate must be ahead".  I feel sometimes like we on DKE are the only ones in the world who realize how questionable polling is, and even care months later after the election when hindsight reveals most polling to be complete crap over the year, often wrong by as much as 20 points.  Even "reputable" pollsters occasionally goof by 30 or more points.  And we don't even need hindsight to recognize the fact that at the same time polls will differ wildly...they can't both be right!

      Sigh.

      •  Even Political Wire does it (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        With their notoriously bad headlines. "So and so increases his lead" etc.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 09:57:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I've been a loyal follower of politicalwire (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          for years now, going back to 2006 or so.  But even they're starting to get on my nerves recently with how they write up some of the polls, and more importantly some of the stupid right-wing concern-trolling fluff they've started incorporating (trying to broaden their readership I guess).

          •  They really need a quality control filter (0+ / 0-)

            for WonkWire, too.

            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

            by bjssp on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 10:09:04 AM PDT

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            •  I completely ignore the sidebar (0+ / 0-)

              WonkWire isn't even the worst, NewsMax is right at the top.

              •  The difference is that NewsMax is useful (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                skibum59

                to see what sort of memes the Republicans are pushing and what sort of outlandish claims they are using, i.e. "ObamaCare: Massive Medicare Changes Coming." It's garbage, but you can get an idea of what they are thinking and quickly move on.

                With WonkWire, there's often interesting stuff, but it's mixed in weak stuff, if not outright crap.

                "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                by bjssp on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 10:16:35 AM PDT

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              •  I love that shit (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                kleinburger, askew, Skaje, gabjoh

                DeBlasio honeymooned in Cuba! LMFAO.

                "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                by conspiracy on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 10:17:31 AM PDT

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                •  DeBlasio only went to Cuba (0+ / 0-)

                  for the mojitos. Miami just wasn't caught up at that point.

                  Seriously now, if you read the NYT article, it looks like his intention was to spread social justice rather than to, say, nationalize the economy.

                  "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                  by bjssp on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 10:31:52 AM PDT

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          •  Don't know if Taegan himself writes the headlines (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            But if he does he should get someone else.

            "Lonegan Closing on Booker"

            "Booker Way Ahead in Senate Race"

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 10:16:40 AM PDT

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          •  I like them for links and summaries of the day (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv

            Basically the major stuff for the day in campaign news and some major Congressional and White House stories show up there, and I go there daily for that.

            But Taegan's own blurbs are worthless and inaccurate, as are his headlines.

            Still, his site is a good service.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 06:43:51 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  As opposed to (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Darth Jeff, MichaelNY

          "So and so polling firm increases their margin of error".

          That would be funny to read...

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 10:07:18 AM PDT

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    •  PPP, too, does this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I think all public pollsters do this.

      I'm sure private campaign pollsters do the same communicating internally and with their clients, but that's different because their job is to get it right and get numbers that are truly trustworthy that anyone polling accurately would get.

      But public polls all take cost-saving shortcuts that undermine their own narratives about their own polls.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 06:42:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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