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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/24 (337 comments)

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  •  Think of senate races of like playing numbers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat

    It's all about gains and loses. Maximizing gains while minimizing loses. Dems have done a great job of that in the last several cycles. In both cases. The GOP are gonna make up for loses in MO, IN, ND from last year. That's a fact. But then the road gets tough for them after they gain 3 seats. As long as we negate a loss with Georgia or Kentucky, in reality Georgia is more likely to flip than Kentucky. I like to be optimistic, but I also live in reality. Reality says we have a much better shot in Ga than Ky. We should be good. We gonna get NJ back next month.

    On to 2016 and 2018, esp 2016, that map is BRUTAL for Republicans. For sure we will make it up loses for next year in '16. We'll most likely gain more seats in '16 than what we'll lose in '14. I always think of it as numbers, and where you try to negate for potential loses. I don't see Republican being in the majority in 2014, absolutely not in 2016. They know the hellish road they face in '16. And that's why you see infighting with GOP Senators in the NRSC. They know that they need to have a big 2014 cycle.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 10:17:25 AM PDT

    •  Kentucky is more likely than Georgia I think (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, jncca, skibum59, James Allen

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 10:21:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Im sorry my dude, I jus totally disagree wit that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian

        Even though McConnell is unpopular, it's Kentucky! ALG was always going to be the underdog in this. However great or slight, she's the underdog.

        Kentucky hasn't elected in Dem to the Senate since '92. And most importantly it doesn't anything to the rapidly changing demographics that Georgia has. Mix that with a volitile GOP primary, which has a very high chance of producing an unelectable nominee. That's why IMO opinion we have a very good chance in GA.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 10:28:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  *it doesn't have anything close (0+ / 0-)

          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

          by BKGyptian89 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 10:33:05 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Demographic eventuality (4+ / 0-)

            Is continually disproven, or more precisely, to be a more drawn out process than some expect.  Georgia might be getting less white, but the white voters are getting more Republican.  Eventually this will stop, but you still end up with turnout issues and such.

            Mongiardo got 49% in 2004, Lunsford got 47% in 2008 and Conway got 44% in 2010 in kentucky.

            Majette got 40% in 2004, Martin got 46.8% in 2008 (down to 43% in runoff) and Thurmond got 39% in 2010.

            Sure GA might nominate someone  extreme, but Nunn still has to make people vote for her as opposed to against someone else.  If her last name wasn't Nunn I doubt we'dgive her any consideration at all.  

            And since the demographic change is driven heavily by population change, I'm still not sure that last name is that big of an asset.  The Nunn name hasn't been on the ballot since 1990.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 01:06:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I feel like Im beating a drum (0+ / 0-)

              Yall make good points, Im just of a minority here that I believe we have better odds in Georgia than Kentucky. But both seats are winnable. Obviously we have to see how the primaries shake out first in both races.

              NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

              by BKGyptian89 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 01:10:46 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  I have both leaning Republican (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, Skaje, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          But the runoff in Georgia is a problem.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 10:37:03 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes that's a concern (0+ / 0-)

            However if she's victorious in the general then all well breath a sigh of relief. Quite honestly if its Broun or Gingrey, esp Broun IMO it should not go to a runoff against such toxic individuals

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 10:40:15 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think it's a decisive concern as is... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              ...the primary runoff, which itself is a problem for Broun and Gingrey.

              The two runoffs make Georgia much tougher than Kentucky.

              And saying "Kentucky is Kentucky" is a strange argument when Kentucky clearly is still far more friendly to Democrats than Georgia.  That's going to change within a decade when Georgia becomes truly purple on the slow trek to blue, but it's not there yet.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 06:50:42 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Kentucky is Kentucky (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          madmojo, James Allen, Skaje, DCCyclone

          But Georgia is also Georgia!

          I think we have a better shot in KY. I don't think McConnell's incumbency helps him at all.

          Ethnically Bostonian lifelong New Yorker

          by R30A on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 10:43:47 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Maine is another pickup opportunity (0+ / 0-)

            Colleen Lachowicz would be someone I'd like to see try an uphill race against Susan Collins, but she might be too liberal for a statewide race in Maine (which is the least polarized state in the country) unless Collins were to be primaried and no credible independent/third-party candidate were to emerge.

            My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

            by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 10:50:14 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I really wish I believed Maine was possible (4+ / 0-)

              Democrats missed a big chance to hurt Collins because of her vote for the Blunt Amendment. A serious effort to do this back in 2012 would probably have done real damage to her moderate cred. Now, it's probably too late even if they were inclined to. I think Senate Dems are terrified of losing one of the few (relatively) moderate Republicans and are never going to seriously challenge her, or even try very hard.

              •  I can't blame them. (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                JBraden, MichaelNY

                She really does look hard to take down. Nothing seems to hurt her credibility.

                It'll be a different story if/when she retires. As far as I know, doesn't DHS need an official Secretary? Just saying... :]

                "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                by bjssp on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 11:14:58 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  There are times... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                gabjoh

                ...that I ask myself this question: What if I ran the Democratic Party?

                If me and a bunch of other progressives ever got complete control of the Democratic Party, there would be no "protected Republicans" whatsoever. It appears as if Collins is the last one left in the Senate, and there's a bunch of them in the House (Mike Turner, Paul Ryan, etc.). We'd encourage competitive primaries, not discourage them. We'd run the party from the bottom up, not from the top down like the old guard currently runs the party. No organization officially connected to the Democratic Party (DNC, DSCC, DCCC, state parties, etc.) could take sides in a competitive primary barring "special circumstances" (i.e., a Democrat running in a competitive primary is obviously unfit for public office).

                The national Democratic platform would be based on four core principles: "revitalizing the American middle class" (pro-collective bargaining, pro-progressive taxation, etc.), "protecting the legal rights of the American people" (pro-choice, pro-marriage equality, pro-marijuana, pro-Fourth Amendment, etc.), "making government less corrupt and more transparent" (pro-redistricting reform, anti-Citizens United, etc.), and "promoting a progressive foreign policy" (i.e., isolationist foreign policy)

                My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

                by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 11:33:25 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  This may not be the right (6+ / 0-)

                  place to discuss this, but isolationism is not progressive foreign policy IMO.  It sure as hell wasn't leading into World War 2, when FDR had to navigate around a powerful isolationist bloc in both parties.

                  It's a false choice to suggest that isolationism is the only alternative to Bush/neocon type bombast and overreach.

                  38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                  by Mike in MD on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 11:36:30 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  One issue is that fundraising for the DSCC and (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  jncca, Skaje, MichaelNY

                  DCCC would dry up if they didn't protect incumbents against primary challengers.  What pol is going to donate to an org that's not committed to fight for him or her?

                  One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

                  by AUBoy2007 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 12:28:26 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  The whole point of that (0+ / 0-)

                    ...is to encourage primary challenges against incumbent Democrats who are not popular within their own party. Obviously, party backing (DCCC, DSCC, or otherwise) of a Democratic candidate in a Republican-held seat before the primary would be off-limits barring "special circumstances".

                    I would set up the Democratic Party to fight for progressive values and not Democratic incumbents.

                    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

                    by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 12:46:14 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  DKE (9+ / 0-)

                  does not exist so that you have a platform to endlessly talk about "corporate Dems" and how you'd "reform the party" and all the other extremely policy-related things you talk about.  Do you even know what DKE is about?  We have a policy thread now, please use it.  Or just comment in main-page dailykos diaries, I think you'll find a far more receptive audience.

              •  It isn't like Tom Allen was a nobody. (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, MichaelNY

                We had a good candidate in a great year. We would have won then if we could.

                Ethnically Bostonian lifelong New Yorker

                by R30A on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 01:22:27 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Susan Collins (5+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jncca, R30A, itskevin, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

              The ideology of her opponent, whoever it may, be will have zero impact on her chances of being re-elected.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 12:13:28 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  if it was possible we'd have won (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jncca, MichaelNY

              or even been somewhat competitive in 2008.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 12:22:27 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Excuse me (5+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              AUBoy2007, Tayya, R30A, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

              I don't want my State Senator going anywhere. We worked hard to get her into the State Senate, and I think she should stay there for a while. If you want some Democrat to go on a suicide run, then get your own Democratic state legislators to do it.

              (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

              by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 12:43:33 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Maine is a great pickup opportunity (6+ / 0-)

              if and ONLY if, Susan Collins retires. Goes from 0% to 100%. Ok, that is an exaggeration, but only a slight one.

              Ethnically Bostonian lifelong New Yorker

              by R30A on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 01:21:02 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Kentucky is far less (11+ / 0-)

            polarized than Georgia; in other words it displays greater elasticity, and Nate's model makes this very clear. Unlike Georgia, where Democrats haven't won a statewide race since 2006, Democrats have routinely won a majority of state offices in 2007, 2003, and 2011, and in 2004, 2008, and even 2010 came closer to winning Senate races in Kentucky, compared to only the 2008 and 2002 results for Democrats in Georgia, 2008 skewed by Presidential turnout and a lax campaign from Chambliss, and 2002 being a function of the state's more Democratic local tendencies a decade ago, and the incumbency of Max Cleland.

            It's much easier to envision a 50.1% map for Grimes than it is for Nunn, though I can envision such for both, Nunn's merely requires her to recapture a tough segment of white rural South Georgia Dems, get minority turnout much higher than it was in either 2006 or 2010 (particularly in Augusta and Savanna and rural southwest Georgia, where it was catastrophically low in both years), and to max out among potentially moderate suburban voters, including wealthy, well-educated, white suburban women in north Fulton and DeKalb, Gwinnett and Cobb, plus keeping the margins in north Georgia from reaching the 3:1 implosion it was for Obama both times.

            Grimes on the other hand, merely needs to dominate her Fayette regional base (the bourbon area of Kentucky), around 58-42, win Louisville 60-40, and win the coal counties of east KY (tough), and pull together the western KY counties that other Democrats have been successful in (like Beshear), which is not as tough a call as the coal counties at this point, I think.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 11:43:05 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You make great points on how both (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              R30A, MichaelNY

              Nunn and ALG need to do, in order to win. Nunn in order for her to win, is to do VERY well in metro Atlanta. she need to run 46-47% ish in those collar counties in Gwinett, and Cobb.

              She has to run up the score these counties that have flip over night, Douglass, Henry, Rockdale and Newton, to counter those votes in the blood red northern part of the state. And if she does well in ancestrally Democratic south GA, in Bishop's and Barrow's district, I think that will be enough for her to capture +50% of the vote, and avoid that nagging runoff.

              She can do this against those 2. Especially against "the lies straight from the pit of hell" guy.

              NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

              by BKGyptian89 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 12:59:26 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Actually (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                she probably has to get close to 48% or more in those counties in Gwinett and Cobb.  If she can win a pluriarity or even a narrow majority in Cobb and Gwinett than that would be huge. And I think out of those two Gwinett is more winnable because the growth in that county has been more favorable for us.

                NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                by BKGyptian89 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 03:37:53 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  That means a lot of work starting now (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  BKGyptian89, MichaelNY

                  since we'll probably need to mobilize new, largely Latino and Asian, suburban voters to get those sorts of numbers. For South Georgia, Broun being socially hard-right ("socially conservative" really isn't sufficient for him IMHO) probably isn't enough to get people to vote for Nunn. Economic issues would be where it's at, particularly since they also matter big-time to black voters in South Georgia. But it's still probably easier than toppling an existing Minority Leader given the prominence of the coal issue in eastern KY.

                  Male, 23, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

                  by fearlessfred14 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 03:53:11 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  She ain't gonna run as a liberal (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    by reading articles on the race, she doesn't even mentions her party. I think her running as a moderate on key issues, she be able to do well in South GA. But as fgar as mobilization. The DSCC made it clear they going to put resources in this race.  

                    FWIW, the DSCC spent 1.5 mil on Aiken to boost him and with McCaskill's royally fucking the GOP primary to make Aiken come out. So I believe they'll play hardball again in the primaries. Georgia and Kentucky very high priorities for them, to negate for loses in SD, WV, and possibly MT.

                    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                    by BKGyptian89 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 04:10:50 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  It's obviously easier (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    R30A

                    Than toppling an existing minority leader. McConnell is a weaker candidate than anyone but Gingrey and Broun in Georgia. He has a state much more willing to vote for Democrats. And a much more popular and strong Democrat running against. Elasticity is king. That and candidate dynamics.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 05:38:01 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

          •  We'll see (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            R30A, MichaelNY

            It would be fantastic if we get both. But I just believe GA is more gettable outta the 2. So I guess we disagree.

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 12:19:51 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Kentucky also hasn't elected a Democrat as (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BKGyptian89, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          governor since 2011, compared to Georgia when exactly? How do the state offices look in each state? How strong is the Democratic Party in each state?

          I think this is mostly splitting hairs to talk about which is more likely, because both ALG and Nunn have strengths and weaknesses which are totally unrelated, and are hard to measure against each other, but I think if I had to guess, I'd guess we're more likely in Kentucky because McConnell is unpopular and unlikable and we don't yet know if the R nominee in Georgia will be, and ALG has also won an election before.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 12:19:58 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You make great points, and Im not disagreeing (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY

            with that. We'll have a better picture of our standing in Georgia, after we see who emerges out of the GOP primary.

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 12:26:10 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  What is Nunn's great strength (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            I really don't see it.  I see pretty decent polling but I just can't wrap my head around why she is liked since it doesn't seem like she's all that visible.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 01:08:58 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  That might depend on who wins the R primary (0+ / 0-)

        in GA.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 07:58:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  '14 vs. '16 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf
      For sure we will make it up loses for next year in '16. We'll most likely gain more seats in '16 than what we'll lose in '14.
      This seems optimistic to me. In '14 we have retiring Dems in 3 very solid Romney states (WV, SD, and AK), incumbents in 2 more (LA and AR), and a 6th in a slightly red state (NC). Our only two pickup chances are real longshots.

      In '16 Republicans only have 1 incumbent in a dark blue state (IL), 3 in light blue states which nonetheless vote for Rs in statewide elections fairly often (PA, NH, and WI), and then about 4 more in tossup states (FL, NC, OH, and IA).

      Maybe we win 5-6 of those, maybe we only win 1-2; whereas in '14 I think Rs are guaranteed to pick up 3 and likely to gain at least 5.

      •  Oh, der... (0+ / 0-)

        Plus MT. I meant that instead of AK, but add AK to LA and AR. In other words: we're defending 6 seats in states that Romney won by 14% or more. It's actually sort of remarkable we're competitive in any of those, let alone the 3-4 where we have a legitimate shot!

      •  I don't think they gonna gain 5 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        That's were me and you disagree. They'll (GOP) pickup the 3 open seats in red states. SD, WV MT. In that order. After that it becomes a heavy lift for them. Landrieu and Pryor are no pushovers. And too many people on here foolishly believe they are.

        Those 4 incumbents in those tossup state you mentioned, I don't know what will happened. Rubio might be stupid enough to run for Pres, Burr is gonna have to share a ticket w. McCrory, and Grassley might retire. But we don't know with those races you mention. The 4 incumbents in those D leaning states are our targets. That's where I believe we'll win, and make up for '14.

        Let's see how the primaries shake out first before we can make predictions on the 2014 cycle. But base on the 2016 Senate map, plus being in a Presidential yr, that's is no doubt very favorable to us.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 06:15:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Likely? (0+ / 0-)

        As in, you think there's more than a 50% chance that the Republicans will win 5 seats in 2014? Beyond the obvious, which 2 other ones do you think will lose?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 08:17:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Not to be nitpicky, but... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, askew, HoosierD42, jncca
      The GOP are gonna make up for loses in MO, IN, ND from last year. That's a fact.
      No, it really isn't a fact until or unless it happens.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 07:57:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The 3 open seats I'm talking about (0+ / 0-)

        We don't have good chances at holding them. If you don't want to be nitpicky then don't say, unless you actually mean to be nitpicky. I'm just saying.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 08:04:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I just don't like claims of fact (0+ / 0-)

          that are not really facts. "Not to be nitpicky" was my attempt to soften the remark, but I guess I need to be blunter. :-)

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 08:36:03 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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