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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/25 (305 comments)

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  •  CA-AD-52: Multiple reasons for the close result (10+ / 0-)
    1. Geography: The district straddles the Los Angeles-San Bernardino county border. Over 2/3 of the district population and registered voters are from the SB portion. This portion is also the more Republican/conservative part of the district. Leon is from Ontario in SB County; Rodriguez is from Pomona in LA County. Ontario is also slightly larger than Pomona.
    2. History: This district turned Democratic only in 1998. That's not too long ago. Especially because this district is 68% Latino, it is extremely prone to steep Democratic dropoff and Republicans still have some solid level of support. In other words, the district still has substantial partisan elasticity.
    3. Name recognition: Leon has been mayor of Ontario since 2005. Rodriguez was a lowly city councilmember of Pomona only since 2010. Leon also ran in the state senate special in May against Norma Torres, so he's been around the district once already.
    4. Factionalism: The Democrats in this area were divided into three warring factions. Rodriguez was aligned with Norma Torres (interestingly, Torres was a 911 dispatcher while Rodriguez was an EMT). Danielle Soto, daughter of former assemblyman Nell Soto and got sixth place in the primary, was endorsed by Gloria Negrete McLeod. Manuel Saucedo, who came in last in the primary, sided with Joe Baca. Since these factions pretty much hate each other (especially between Negrete McLeod and the other two), there was no "rally around the winner" situation and hence a huge dropoff. Incidentally, it looks like Leon got almost exactly the combined primary votes of himself and the Republican, so the difference in turnout is solely on the Democratic side.

    I don't think Leon's party registration had much of an impact in this election. Due to the abysmal turnout, people who did vote tend to be extremely well-informed or partisan anyway. In the SD-32 special, Torres won 60-40, and the portions of SD-32 not in AD-52 are much more Democratic than those in AD-52.

    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Wed Sep 25, 2013 at 02:51:51 PM PDT

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