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View Diary: Rigging The Intrade Market For Romney Last Year (90 comments)

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  •  The Iowa Electronic Markets (5+ / 0-)

    have a maximum account of less than $1,000 so it makes manipulating it very difficult. For those who like to bet on election results, and the IEM is completely legal for US residents, there may be an opportunity to arbitrage if the other markets are being manipulated for political purposes. Here is a link to the IEM.

    "let's talk about that"

    by VClib on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 11:58:28 AM PDT

    •  So, what was the difference b/w Intrade and IEMs? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LilithGardener, alwaysquestion

      If the argument put forth in the paper is true, there would have had to be a material difference between the day to day projections of the IEM and Intrade.

      Do the authors investigate this?

      Learn about Centrist Economics, learn about Robert Rubin's Hamilton Project.

      by PatriciaVa on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 12:33:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Patricia - there likely was (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TomP, sawgrass727, alwaysquestion

        I don't know if the authors looked at the other electronic markets to see if there was an arbitrage opportunity. My guess is there likely was for a student of markets but I don't have the inclination to go and search for the answer. I would think that all the information is on the two websites somewhere. If you find out the answer, I would love to know.

        This issue of partisan manipulation resulting in a possible market arbitrage opportunity is an interesting one, and if anyone has a good contact at the University of Iowa, would be a perfect topic for a research paper.  

        "let's talk about that"

        by VClib on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 01:03:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Sock Puppets (4+ / 0-)

      Political campaigns are great places to organize thousands of sockpuppets each placing a $1000 bet.

      "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

      by DocGonzo on Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 01:41:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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