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View Diary: Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Either Boehner gets Democratic votes, or... (109 comments)

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  •  Retire with honor, or be turned out in disgrace (16+ / 0-)

    Nothing lasts for ever, not life, not careers, and not Speakerships.  It is hardly a unique observation to note that timing is everything in this.  Boehner is progressively weaker within his caucus, and his party is progressively weaker with the voters as a whole, with each new staged crisis.  There is no mystery about where this is going.  The end of his Speakership is upon him, but he can choose the manner of it.  

    He can bring a clean bill and pass it with Democratic support, after which retirement from the Speaker's chair will be the dignified course.  By doing so, he would have served the nation and the long term interests of his party.  In the long run, it is also the honorable and dignified course.  Or he can take the Nation into  a government shutdown and potentially into a default, whereupon his Party will suffer losses both at the polls within their supposedly airtight districts, and among the public at large, and he will be forced out in disgrace.  In that case, he will have abandoned a leaders role cravenly and his disgrace will be long lived.  Nobody honors a coward.  

    I think that there is another factor here.  Retirement to Southern Ohio as an honored elder statesman is no doubt attractive, but I suspect retirement to K Street looks better to Boehner.  Will he bring more "rain" if his honor is intact or will he be a better rainmaker if he keeps the Tea Party caucus  connections.  I do not think he can have both.  If there are elder statesmen left in active Republican politics, they are on K Street.  I hope they are doing what elder statesmen do, and helping guide this to something short of a  crash landing.

    •  who knows (1+ / 0-)
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      he might survive the primary challenge if he works with us If the dnc dscc or dccc send you mailers, send that link back to them and tell them you won't send money to people who defend democrats who betray progressive principals!

      by daeros on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 06:42:11 AM PDT

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      •  Boehner lands hard inside the Beltway (6+ / 0-)

        I think Boehner's Congressional seat is not in danger.  My experience with Southern Ohio politics is so old that I claim no personal knowledge, but reading about the dynamics of Cincinnati politics, I see nothing to suggest voters in his district are looking for someone else to represent them.  That could change, especially if Boehner is severely damaged.

        The election I think he is going to lose sooner rather than later is the vote in the House Republican Caucus for Speaker.  He has long been holding off his treacherous Whip, who wants to play Brutus to Boehner's Ceasar.  Now Cruz shows up passing out and organizing long knives too, in an enterprise sure to fail spectacularly and create a demand for a scapegoat to be sacrificed.  All this isn't exactly hard to spot.  I think it is also not hard to spot the likely candidate for that scapegoat role: John Boehner.  It couldn't happen to a more deserving fellow, but more important that the fate of any politician is what it all means for our Nation.  

    •  Why would Boehner lose the speakership (2+ / 0-)
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      Josiah Bartlett, salmo

      if he allowed the government to shut down?  Gingrich didn't lose the speakership for doing so.  Gingrich lost the speakership because of serial charges of unethical behavior and a leadership style that was erratic and tumultuous.  Of course Gingrich was dealing with halfway sane Republicans.

      Shutting down government operations has become not just a ploy to make a political point but an end in itself for Republicans.

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 08:37:49 AM PDT

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      •  His Speakership's end is imminent because ... (1+ / 0-)
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        The loss of his leadership role is coming to Boehner one way or the other.  It isn't just this round of crisis, the caucus he leads is coming apart.  His Whip is a treacherous bastard, he has Ted Cruz poaching, posturing, and otherwise setting him up, a fractious faction seems to think their role is to metaphorically burn the government down, and the links that allow a political party to serve multiple, somewhat incompatible interests are weaker among Republicans by the day.  If they don't have tribalism, they have nothing.  

        There is a lot of hate on the Republican side of the aisle in the House (indeed, hate seems to be their sole remaining commonality), but what politicians hate most of all is losing.  And they are going to lose, in this coming set of showdowns for sure, and in 2014 if they continue down the path on which their base seems bent.  Gingrich got ousted not for all the things they said, then and now, but for losing.  So too, Boehner can hang on a bit longer now, but he can't survive losing.  

        So let's see how the specific charges on which Gingrich was removed from office compare to where Boehner is now:

        1) erratic and tumultuous leadership - check
        2) serial unethical conduct - hummm.  First, almost every politician, of every political party, has skeletons in her/his closet.  There are no saints in the House, that is for sure.  And almost without exception, those personal vulnerabilities are known.  Legislatures are very small places.  His skeletons are rattling around, and not in anticipation of Halloween.

        Our Mr. Boehner has stood out there for some time for being brazenly for sale.  That is special indeed when you consider how unscrupulous Congressmen are.   He was the guy handing out checks on the House floor, remember, and was criticized not for buying votes, but for doing so in public.  We know he has an alcohol problem and rumors of his infidelity abound (by the law of averages, I figure they are more likely to be true than not).  

        If he tries to hang on, the recipe for a set of charges to justify his removal will be some mix of all that.  But, very few things in Washington are called by their right names.  The real reason will be because the little SOB's don't like it when the big SOB's lead them to losses and power is slipping away.  There isn't a lot of guesswork in my prediction of Boehner's imminent removal.

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