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View Diary: Breaking Poll: Democrats Open Wide Lead in Generic House!! (17 comments)

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  •  That's not how representatives are elected (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    coffeetalk, CoyoteMarti

    Unfortunately Democratic leadership was asleep at the switch after Citizens United, and let Republicans take over state legislatures in far too many states. They have now gerrymandered districts which make polls like this kind of pointless.

    I'm no philosopher, I am no poet, I'm just trying to help you out - Gomez (from the song Hamoa Beach)

    by jhecht on Tue Oct 01, 2013 at 07:01:51 AM PDT

    •  A nine-point gap (5+ / 0-)

      in the generic ballot would SWAMP any gerrymandering advantages the Republicans have. Unfortunately, I doubt the gap is truly that large, or if it is, I'm skeptical that it will hold, but we could still benefit through significant gains in the makeup of the House if Republicans keep up with their shenanigans.

      •  It's meaningless for 2014 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        VClib

        The only thing that matters are race by race polls.  We don't have a generic Republican v. Democratic ballot for the House.  We have 435 individual elections.  

        And what's pretty consistent in polling for Congress is that people who say they have a really low opinion of Congress also often say that they are happy with their own Representative.  

        So, generic polls like this are pretty meaningless in terms of who will control the House after the 2014 elections.  

        •  Do you think individual races are entirely... (5+ / 0-)

          disconnected from broad national trends?

          That's not what history shows.

          Art is the handmaid of human good.

          by joe from Lowell on Tue Oct 01, 2013 at 07:33:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It means something if the Dems take (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            CoyoteMarti

            advantage of it. It's up to the Dems to find good candidates and fund them.
            By "good" I don't necessarily mean liberal, but capable, trustworthy, Dems appropriate for the district.
            I'd love all liberal candidates, but it wouldn't work. Ideally what we need are "frugal progressives" who can take advantage of the cost to the taxpayer and the fundamental dishonesty of the goppers. Then when they get into office they vote for clean energy and a 21st cent. infrastructure that will restore the middle class, create jobs, take the strain off the social safety net, and end talk of "austerity".
            Seems like a gimme, to me, but I'm not in charge.

            You can't make this stuff up.

            by David54 on Tue Oct 01, 2013 at 07:43:31 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  joe - in twelve months this poll will mean a lot (0+ / 0-)

            Right now, not so much. It's good, and we definitely like the trend, but you can't forecast anything about the control of the House in 2014 from this poll.

            "let's talk about that"

            by VClib on Tue Oct 01, 2013 at 02:34:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Not true (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          pistolSO, Tonedevil

          The generic ballot is a pretty good predictor of the overall House vote.

          You're right that race-by-race polls, with specifically named candidates, are more informative, but it's not true to say the generic ballot is meaningless. You can get a lot from it.

          See Charlie Cook or any of the big election prognosticators. The generic ballot definitely informs their predictions.

    •  Not totally pointless (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Theodore J Pickle

      Shop Liberally this holiday season at Kos Katalog

      by JamieG from Md on Tue Oct 01, 2013 at 07:41:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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