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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections gubernatorial race ratings: Initial ratings for 2013-14 (203 comments)

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  •  I was hoping Davis would run for Senate (8+ / 0-)

    and challenge Cornyn. That would have been a better application of her firepower in my view. Winning the Governor's office in Texas is going to be a long shot to say the least.

    She's going to have to count on Abbot making some major mistakes.

    •  May the spirits of Molly Ivins (10+ / 0-)

      and Ann Richards (and Barbara Jordan, and what other Texas women am I leaving out here?) propel her along.

    •  Wouldn't she have a better shot at a state race (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Lawrence, R30A, MichaelNY

      than a national one?  Not sure how big the South is on the state/federal divide still (probably not by much), but it would probably still help her out to fight a state race.  Plus Cornyn isn't very controversial relative to Texas' Junior Senator, so it would be hard to necessarily get the moderates on board with that, especially since Texas moderates probably lean a little right and this isn't an open seat race.

    •  I think it is easier (5+ / 0-)

      for people to beat the partisan lean of their states in governor races rather than senate races.  Democrats were able to elect governors in Wyoming, Arizona, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Kentucky in recent years, even though those states have not elected a Dem senator in a long time.  On the other side, Republicans have been successful at getting GOP governors in Hawaii, California, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, New York, and New Jersey in recent years, but the only GOP Senators from any of those states were Linc Chafee and Scott Brown, both defeated for re-election.

    •  A Senate race wouldn't drive turnout (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      Only way Davis can win is by turning out non-voters. What does a non-voter get out of sending Davis to the Senate? Things won't change to any great degree.

      Davis as Gov vs Abbott as Gov? Big difference.

      Disclaimer: If the above comment can possibly be construed as snark, it probably is.

      by grubber on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 12:00:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Davis needs a strong GOTV effort to win in Texas (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Judge Moonbox, MichaelNY, duhban

      Texas is one of those states with a low voter turnout which is under 50%.  Obama lost Texas by 1.2 million votes.  Meanwhile there were 4 million Hispanics who were eligible to vote but didn't show up.  What Texas needs to turn blue is a strong grassroots effort to make sure every eligible Democrat is registered to vote and shows up at the voting booth.

      Right now Hispanics make up 40% of the population of Texas and are projected to be 50% by 2020.  Since 71% of Hispanics voted for President Obama it is easy to see why Texas could turn blue.  Even now it is quite possible for Davis to win if people turn out to vote for her.

      •  Population vs Voting Population (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        IM, MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

        It's worth noting that whilst Hispanics make up roughly 40% of Texas' population, they only made up 26% of eligible voters in 2012. This is partly because a significant number of Hispanics are illegal immigrants, but also because a third of Hispanics are currently under the age of 18.

        In 2012 IIRC, Hispanics were only 22% of the Texan electorate. Realistically, Davis won't get a much more favourable electorate in 2014, because of the drop in minority voting during non-presidential years. At best, she gets a 26% Hispanic electorate, should they turn out in the same numbers as white non-hispanics (very unlikely).

        However the silver lining is that if Davis wins 70-30 amongst Hispanics, with a 26% Hispanic electorate, (90-10 amongst AA, 70-30 amongst 'others') this means that she only needs 30% of the white vote to win.  Bill White got 29% of the white vote and Ann Richards got 43% in '90 and 31% in '94.

        •  44% of Latinos in Texas are eligible to vote (0+ / 0-)

          According to the Chamber of Commerce, NPR and other sources there are about 4 million eligible Hispanic voters in Texas.  The problem is that many of them did not turn out to vote.  If they did, Texas would be blue.  Note that Obama only lost by 1.2 million votes in Texas.  If the Hispanic voters turned out he could have won in Texas.

          Another factor to consider is white immigration into Texas from Northern states. It is quite possible that many of those people could very well be Democrats.

          This also explains why the Texas republicans have wasted no time in gerrymandering districts to favor republicans and instituted restrictive voter ID laws to suppress the vote.

          •  It cant be assumed that all 4 million will vote... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MrLiberal, MichaelNY

            Whilst it would be true that Obama would have won Texas if 100% of all registered Texan Hispanics voted, that is a rather meaningless statistic, since we never see that level of turnout in the US.

            Even if Hispanic turnout in Texas matched White turnout (60.9%) in Texas 2012, Obama would still have lost by 5.5 points. Considering that Hispanics in Nevada only had a turnout of around 54%, despite huge GOTV efforts, an Obama victory in Texas was never really plausible.

        •  Legal aliens too. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          Even among Hispanics who do have a green card, there are many who haven't had them for the requisite length of time.

          Among those who have been here long enough under a status where they can become citizens, some prefer to remain citizens of their homelands.

          Of course, there is hope for improvement in that some may need the nudge of being asked for their vote to decide to take the oath of citizenship.

          Freedom's just another word for not enough to eat. --Paul Krugman's characterization of conservative attitudes.

          by Judge Moonbox on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 06:47:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  How would it change things if Julian Castro (0+ / 0-)

        ran for Lt. Governor? That might induce more Hispanics to vote.

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