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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections gubernatorial race ratings: Initial ratings for 2013-14 (203 comments)

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  •  Wis is not "likely" R (0+ / 0-)

       What if I told you there was an Obama state with an R incumbent governor, where the guv has a DISapproval rating of 49%, a net approval rating of -1, can't get to 50% against any possible opponent (despite having no Dem opponent formally enter the face), and whose administration has had scandals and ethical challenges continually the headlines for the last few weeks.

      What if I also told you that this state has continued to disappoint economically, despite the guv running on a promise of more jobs, and the governor has openly admitted to "divide and conquer/ no compromise" tactics that define the Congressional GOP, and the DC GOP's falling approval ratings.

       If I told you this, there'd be no way you'd rate that race as "likely R". But that's what David Nir did with Scott Walker in Wisconsin. At best, Wisconsin should be "lean R", and that's only because there's no formally declared Dem candidate.  

      Walker is extremely vulnerable and the last 10% of his 48% approval is EXTREMELY soft- and a lot softer than his 49% disapproval. I'd highly suggest David think again about his Wisconsin analysis, because Walker is quite beatable in 2014 (if he even runs), and we don't need to see false barriers put up.

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